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024
FXUS64 KSJT 062000
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
300 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low clouds will continue to stream north across West Central Texas
this morning, and persist through late morning or early
afternoon. After that, a dryline develop and push into the area.
Ahead of the dryline, an unstable air mass will prevail with CAPE
values well above 3000 J/KG. However, mid level temperatures have
warmed and are acting as a cap, and most if not all CAMs are
indicating that this cap will prevent convection across most of
the area. A little hesitant about this with many of the CAMs also
hinting at a mid level CU field developing across the eastern big
Country south into the Heartland, an indication the models are at
least trying to break through the cap. Will include some small
POPs a little farther west than the CAMs indicate just to be
safe, especially given the instability in place.

Otherwise, warm this afternoon with hottest temperatures across
the Concho Valley on the back side of the dryline. Highs in the
90s in those locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue on Wednesday, with mainly
dry conditions and afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s
across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

An upper level trough will track east across the central and
northern Plains on Thursday. An associated cold front is expected
to move south across the area late Wednesday night and Thursday.
The front will bring gusty north winds and cooler temperatures
for the end of the week. Highs on Thursday will range from the 70s
north of the front across the Big Country, to the upper 80s to
near 90 ahead of the front along the I-10 corridor. There is a
low chance for thunderstorms to develop along the front over far
southeast counties during the afternoon hours. Any storms that
develop could become strong/severe given an unstable airmass and
adequate shear. Highs on Friday will be in the mid and upper 70s,
with lows Thursday night and Friday night in the 50s.

Models continue to show an upper level storm system developing
across the Desert Southwest Friday into Saturday, then tracking
slowly east into the southern Plains by late in the weekend and
early next week. Some model differences continue, with the ECMWF
maintaining a slower solution. This system will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area over the weekend and
possibly into early next week. Given some model differences, will
keep POPs on the low side for now. Highs over the weekend will be
in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Saturday, warming into
the low to mid 80s by next Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Skies were clearing over western parts of the area, but all of our
TAF sites remain enveloped in low cloud cover with MVFR ceilings
at midday. Expect low cloud cover to break up 19Z-20Z at
KSOA/KSJT/KABI, and by 21Z at KBBD and KJCT. While some of our
eastern counties have a low possibility for a few isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, the chance
looks too remote at this time to include at any of our terminals.
Breezy south-southwest winds this afternoon will decrease by
evening, and winds will become light west to northwest late
tonight into the morning hours Tuesday. Redevelopment of low
clouds is anticipated late tonight and early Tuesday morning at
our southern terminals. These low clouds should break up by mid-
morning as drier low-level air filters into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Skies were clearing over western parts of the area, but all of our
TAF sites remain enveloped in low cloud cover with MVFR ceilings
at midday. Expect low cloud cover to break up 19Z-20Z at
KSOA/KSJT/KABI, and by 21Z at KBBD and KJCT. While some of our
eastern counties have a low possibility for a few isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening, the chance
looks too remote at this time to include at any of our terminals.
Breezy south-southwest winds this afternoon will decrease by
evening, and winds will become light west to northwest late
tonight into the morning hours Tuesday. Redevelopment of low
clouds is anticipated late tonight and early Tuesday morning at
our southern terminals. These low clouds should break up by mid-
morning as drier low-level air filters into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Abilene     57  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  60  95  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    67  95  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   63  89  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  57  89  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       63  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       66  90  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19