000
FXUS64 KSJT 221714
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A fairly quiet and rather pleasant day is on tap for west central
Texas.  Early morning stratus over the Edwards Plateau should
gradually burn off after sunrise with thermal mixing.  Otherwise,
the surface high that brought cooler conditions to the area
overnight should move eastward to the Gulf coast.  Southerly winds
should increase by noontime on the backside of the high, allowing
temperatures to warm up to the mid 70s this afternoon. The southerly
flow should also bring a moisture return in the low levels tonight.
This means another stratus deck should re-develop after midnight
across the Hill Country and expand northward.  Given the increasing
dewpoints overnight and warmer airmass, low temperatures should only
fall to the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The warming trend will continue Tuesday into Wednesday, with warmer
temperatures sustained late this week into the weekend. Going
through the next 7 days, will be monitoring several possibilities
for thunderstorms.

Breezy south winds are expected on Tuesday, and afternoon highs are
expected to range from the lower 80s in some of our far
eastern/southeastern counties, to the mid/upper 80s in much of the
Big Country and Concho Valley. With an upper trough moving southeast
across parts of the Midwest, trailing portion of associated cold
front is forecast to move through southwestern Oklahoma and into
parts of northwest Texas by Tuesday evening. The front is progged to
stall near or just north of Haskell/Throckmorton Counties Tuesday
night, and stay quasi-stationary through Wednesday. Will have a
conditional possibility for a few strong to severe storms in mainly
the northern Big Country Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night.
With moderate instability and sufficient vertical shear, the main
potential hazards will be large hail and damaging winds if storms
can develop.

Wednesday will be warm and more humid with dewpoints climbing into
the 60s, as south winds continue the low-level moisture transport
into our area. Highs are expected to range from the lower 80s in our
far northern and eastern counties, to the mid/upper 80s
elsewhere. An upper level ridge will shift east across Texas
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

An upper trough over the Desert Southwest Thursday morning will lift
across New Mexico/Colorado Thursday night and into the central/
southern High Plains Friday morning. For our area, will have deeper
moisture in place with a sharpened dryline to our west. The main
chance of thunderstorms will be in our western/northwestern counties
Thursday evening just ahead of the dryline, and across mainly the
northern third of our area Thursday night closer to the better upper
support. With CAPEs 1500-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear around
35 knots, strong to severe storms will be possible, especially in
the Big Country. The main threats include large hail and damaging
winds.

The dryline will advance east across much of our area on Friday, and
mainly the eastern third of our area will have a chance of
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast
strength of the wind fields aloft and instability, may have to
monitor the potential for severe weather in some of our northern and
eastern counties Friday afternoon. Highs Friday are expected to be
mostly in the mid to upper 80s.

Low-level moisture will make a quick return across our area Friday
night with a retreating dryline. This to occur as another upper
trough deepens into the southwestern CONUS by Saturday morning. Per
the medium range models, an upper trough is progged to move east
across New Mexico Saturday afternoon/early Saturday night, then lift
northeast into eastern Colorado or western Kansas Sunday morning.
Storm development looks possible Saturday afternoon/evening in the
eastern Big Country toward Coleman/Brown Counties, with a possible
lead wave moving over the area aloft, and ahead of a dryline. Will
have a possibility of additional storm development across a larger
part of our area  Saturday night (highest chance northern/eastern
counties) with the dryline/weak Pacific front moving east into the
area. At this time, have low PoPs (20-30 percent) for a lingering
possibility of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon in our far
eastern counties. Daytime temperatures look very warm for the
weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of our
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gusty south winds of 10 to 12 knots will decrease this evening.
Expect winds at KABI to pick back up to 12 to 14 knots around 04Z.
Stratus will overspread the area Tuesday morning, resulting in
MVFR ceilings at all sites, except KABI. Expect VFR conditions to
return by late morning or early afternoon. West to southwest winds
will increase to 12 to 15 knots by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  84  59  85 /   0  10  10   0
San Angelo  53  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    54  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   52  82  60  84 /   0   0  10   0
Sweetwater  53  87  60  85 /   0  10  10  10
Ozona       53  82  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       54  82  62  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels