Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 171110
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
410 AM PDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather today. Pacific storm brings a chance of showers again
Wednesday into Thursday with dry conditions Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Skies have cleared out for the most part across interior NorCal as
the low shifts east. There are some lingering clouds and some
patches of fog in the Central Valley. Current temperatures are
chillier compared to 24 hours ago and range from the teens in the
mountain valleys to the mid 30s to lower 40s across the Central
Valley.

Drier weather today as short-wave ridging moves into NorCal.
Highs warm back into the 60s for the Central Valley, but remain
well below average for mid-April.

Next frontal system approaches Wednesday with GFS/EC similar in
digging the upper low southeastward along the CA coast through
Wednesday night before shifting it inland over SoCal Thursday.
Given storm track and limited moisture, best chances for precip
will be along the western and southern edges of our forecast area.

Some showers forecast to linger over the Sierra south of Tahoe
into Thursday evening, but the overall trend will be for warmer
and drier weather late in the week with breezy north winds through
the Central Valley.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
High pressure aloft will bring dry conditions over the weekend.
Weak disturbances will flatten the ridge somewhat bringing some
high cloudiness to the region Saturday and Sunday but daytime high
temperatures will remain well above normal. Both GFS and ECMWF
bring a relatively weak shortwave through norcal on Monday but
differ on the timing. Each indicates some local light
precipitation but given the weakness of this disturbance and model
uncertainty, have kept the Monday forecast dry with just a slight
cool off. Have kept Tuesday dry as well for similar reasons of
model uncertainty. Despite continued cooler daytime temperatures,
daytime highs Tuesday should still remain several degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TAF sites next 24 hours except local MVFR through about 18z.
MVFR/IFR over mountains through about 18z then VFR. Winds
generally below 10 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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