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182
FXUS62 KTAE 060121
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
921 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Additional patchy fog was added to the weather grids through the
evening and early morning hours for Monday. This was the only
change made to the forecast this evening as the rest of the
forecast remains on track.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Main highlights:

1) Slightly increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow.

2) Hot weather expected through mid-week, especially Wednesday
and Thursday, with very warm overnight temperatures.

3) Severe weather is possible on Friday from a passing front.

4) Weekend cooldown behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Today`s slight ridging shifts eastward tonight as another weak
shortwave trough moves across the Southeast US Monday. Storms this
afternoon will be few and far between, primarily along the sea
breeze, given the drier air in place. Some patchy fog is possible
late tonight and early Monday morning, primarily in the FL Panhandle
and southeast AL. With the slight boost from the shortwave, a few
more showers and storms will be possible on Monday, mostly across
southern Georgia and the FL Big Bend with the highest chances near
the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River. Given good instability, DCAPE
around 600-900 J/kg and a little bit of shear in the presence of the
shortwave, can`t rule out some gusty winds and perhaps some small
hail in the stronger storms. Lows tonight will be in the upper half
of the 60s with highs tomorrow near 90 in most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Very warm weather defines the short-term period thanks to a building
subtropical ridge from the SW Gulf. Large-scale subsidence should
mostly suppress convection. When combined with mid-level height
rises, temperatures should soar to around 90 away from the immediate
coast. A persistent onshore flow keeps a muggy airmass in place,
so expect unseasonable overnight/early morning warmth when low
temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s are forecast. These readings
are anywhere from about 8-12 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Mid-level heights continue rising as ridging further builds across
the region. Models suggest 500-mb heights increasing from to the 586-
588 dm range Wednesday-Thursday, which is around the 75th
percentile, per SPC sounding climo for KTLH. This patterns favors
greater warmth than earlier in the week with inland forecast highs
in the low 90s and heat indices a few degrees higher. There may be
some cooling relief from showers/thunderstorms on Thursday mainly
north of the FL state line from a northern stream upper trough
pushing a front across the Appalachians.

Attention turns to severe weather potential on Friday as the front
pushes through the Tri-State area. The environment should be moist,
unstable, and sheared with favorable upper & lower-level support.
Although we are not under any SPC risk, there is a large 15% area
over the East-Central US in the Day 4 Outlook. If trends continue,
then at least a Marginal (level 1 of 5) could be introduced for
tomorrow`s Day 3. Details will be fine tuned as the event draws
near. By Saturday, we are looking at improved weather as we go post
frontal with a much welcomed cooldown in store for us.

High temperatures drop from the mid/upper 80s on Friday to upper
70s/low 80s on Saturday. Widespread 70s for overnight lows are on
tap through Friday, then drop to the upper 50s/low 60s next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Guidance continues to indicate fog overnight (much like the past
few nights) with an overwhelming majority showing LIFR from ECP-
TLH. Last night didnt get quite as low as forecast but will reduce
vsbys to IFR from 08-13Z and watch trends for amendments or lower
further on the 06Z TAFs. VFR at the other sites overnight into
Monday morning. Have PROB30 for TSRA at ABY-VLD that may develop
as a weak trough moves by and seabreeze activates during the late
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting southerly winds around 8 kts with
1-2 ft seas and a dominant period of 6 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Continued favorable boating conditions
expected into late this coming week with persistent south to
southeast winds 10 knots or less and 2 to 3 feet seas. Daily
seabreezes usher an onshore wind along the immediate nearshore
waters. By Friday, a frontal system pushes into the region,
bringing returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds
and seas respond ahead of this feature by approaching cautionary
levels out of the southwest. Northerly breezes at 15 to 20 knots
then arrive in the front`s wake on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Generally south to southwest transport winds of 10-15 mph are
expected over the next several days across the area. Mixing heights
will top out around 4,500-5,500 feet Monday afternoon, then around
5,500-7,000 feet Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
This will result in high dispersions in southeast Alabama Monday,
then across the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will also be possible Monday afternoon, primarily
across southern Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Minimal rainfall expected over the next few days outside of
localized pockets from isolated showers and thunderstorms today and
tomorrow. The next chance for greater coverage of meaningful rain
is Friday when a frontal system pushes through the region. The
latest Day 5 QPF from WPC generally paints a half inch or less
across the Tri-State area, but higher amounts in the 1-2 inch
range are focused over Central MS/AL/GA. These values may slide
southward in subsequent forecasts.

In terms of rivers, Aucilla - Lamont, St Marks Newport, and a few in
the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue to trend
downward. There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  89  68  90 /   0  20   0  10
Panama City   70  84  71  85 /   0  10   0  10
Dothan        67  89  68  90 /  10  20   0  10
Albany        68  89  68  90 /  10  30  10  10
Valdosta      67  89  67  90 /  10  40  10  10
Cross City    67  88  67  89 /  10  40  10  10
Apalachicola  71  81  72  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Monday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...IG3