-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
286
FXUS62 KTAE 130633
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
233 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- A heat advisory remains in effect for much of the Florida
  Panhandle and Big Bend as well as far Southern Georgia for heat
  indices near or above 108 degrees this afternoon. Those who are
  sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or
  hydration could be impacted by the heat.

- Rain chances will be on the increase through the weekend and
  into early next week. The potential for heavy rainfall
  increases after Monday, especially in Southeast Alabama and
  Southwest Georgia.

- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to return to our area
  for today through the weekend. It is strongly discouraged to
  enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags
  and advice of local officials.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The big story for today is the heat. High temperatures should
easily warm into the mid 90s with a few locations reaching the
upper 90s, especially for areas that avoid any afternoon
thunderstorms. While some models suggest dewpoints dropping into
the upper 60s, the bulk of the guidance shows dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s this afternoon, and this is sufficient to produce an
area of heat indices near or just above the 108F criteria for a
heat advisory.

Steering winds will shift to more of a WNW pattern for today, and
this should lead to a late start to convection along the Florida
Big Bend and Panhandle sea breezes. However, with moisture levels
gradually increasing, storm coverage should be a little greater
than on Friday. In addition, high DCAPE values will allow for
gusty winds with any storms that develop, and a brief, pulse
severe storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The best chance
of that occurring is across the Florida big bend along the
seabreeze boundary this afternoon.

For tonight, scattered storms will dissipate after sunset with
muggy overnight lows ranging from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s
along the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A moistening trend continues for Sunday as a ridge weakens and
shifts west of the forecast area. In addition, a trough moves into
the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys and pushes a frontal boundary
toward the Gulf Coast. This will lead to gradually increasing
rain chances into the first half of the week. The presence of a
frontal boundary with preciptable water values above 2 inches
suggests the threat for heavy rainfall. Our western areas are more
vulnerable to flooding compared to our eastern areas given recent
heavy rains in this area in May.

Even after the frontal feature dissipates on Wednesday, continued
southerly to southwesterly flow will keep muggy conditions in
place across the region with daily rain chances continuing
through the end of the forecast period. The elevated rain chances
will help put a break in the heat, with high temperature returning
to the upper 80s to low 90s through the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Cannot rule out a low potential for brief restrictions this
morning in patchy fog/low clouds at the terminals. Given the
low potential, TAFs remain VFR, but may need an amendment.
Highest confidence in TSRA this aftn/eve at TLH and VLD with
PROB30 groups. If coverage increases, may need to add TSRA
at the remainder of the terminals in subsequent TAF packages.
Also highlighting a seabreeze passage at ECP/TLH this aftn
with winds going Southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mainly light west to southwest winds will prevail through this
weekend with some local enhancements along the coast in association
with the seabreeze. As a frontal system approaches next week,
stronger southwesterly to westerly flow will develop with seas
building to 3 to 5 feet.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Hot weather will prevail through today with isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices are expected to be
in the 106 to 110 degree range this afternoon. MinRH will generally
be between 40 to 50 percent this afternoon before increasing
slightly Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will also increase somewhat
this weekend as moisture returns to the region. However, the best
chance of wetting rains will come next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

No significant flash or riverine flooding is expected through the
weekend. However, locally heavy downpours are expected within any
showers and storms that develop.

For early next week, a marginal to slight to risk of flash
flooding is a concern for Monday and Tuesday, mainly across the
western half of the area. A slow moving frontal boundary coupled
with high preciptable water values is expected to result in
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain. The western portions of the forecast area have already been
especially wet from rainfall in May and are much more vulnerable
to flash flooding than the eastern portions of the forecast area.

In the meantime, it`s been a very dry start to June. The
Tallahassee area is currently tied for the 5th driest start to
June on record with only 0.02 inches of rain so far at the airport
through the first 12 days of the month. Severe to exceptional
drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and
Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial
recent rains. The drought features long term impacts that are
affecting rivers, lakes, and ponds that are still below normal
despite recent rains. For more information on local drought
impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when
they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   96  76  95  77 /  60  20  50  10
Panama City   91  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10
Dothan        96  76  94  76 /  30  20  40  20
Albany        97  78  94  77 /  30  20  50  30
Valdosta      96  77  95  77 /  50  20  50  20
Cross City    95  78  94  79 /  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  90  79  90  80 /  10   0  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 6 PM EDT /5 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ009>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-
     118-127-128-134-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD