-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
889
FXUS62 KTAE 182323
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
723 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Upper level trough to our north slides further east for Thursday
afternoon and this will bring more westerly flow to the forecast
area tomorrow. A weak frontal boundary to our west this afternoon
will also slide a little further east tomorrow and allow a little
more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. The
more westerly steering pattern should also keep the seabreeze from
pushing inland as fast so this means the greater rain chances on
Thursday will likely be across our Florida counties with more
scattered activity across our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Similar to today, activity will follow a diurnal pattern with the
greatest coverage in the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Ridging is forecast to build over the eastern CONUS Friday into
the rest of the period with our local area on the southern
periphery. This feature will persist well into next week, limiting
PoPs over the northern portions of the area and causing high
temperatures to rise several degrees into the mid 90s. Afternoon
showers and storms will be possible each day but should mostly
stick around the FL counties along the seabreeze. Heat indices
will also rise into the 100 to 110 degree range each afternoon,
and a few spots may end up requiring a heat advisory.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&


.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Scattered thunderstorms around the DHN and ABY terminals this
evening. These should diminish as the sun sets in an hour or so.
Winds are expected to go calm overnight. VFR conditions will
prevail through the night. The DHN terminal may experience IFR
cigs around daybreak, but should lift soon after. Another
afternoon of showers and thunderstorms can be expected with heavy
rainfall that may reduce vsbys and isolated gusty winds.
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&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf
will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next several
days. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue,
especially during the overnight and morning hours each day. Into the
weekend, the high shifts a little farther north, bringing in more of
a light east to southeast flow over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Fire weather concerns should be relatively low the next few days
as lighter winds and elevated afternoon humidities remain in
place. A slightly drier pattern will be in place the next day or
two but rain chances will still be around climatological normals
for this time of year.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

While widespread flooding is not anticipated, locally heavy
downpours in daily storms could result in minor ponding or flooding
of low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially in more urban
settings.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  91  75  93 /  20  60  20  60
Panama City   78  90  78  92 /  20  40  30  50
Dothan        73  92  74  93 /  20  50  30  40
Albany        73  92  74  94 /  30  40  30  30
Valdosta      74  93  75  94 /  10  40  20  50
Cross City    73  93  74  93 /  10  50  30  60
Apalachicola  78  88  78  89 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield