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737
FXUS62 KTAE 021955
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
355 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging aloft will persist through the near term with high
pressure building in at the surface. As a result, south-
southwesterly flow will continue pushing moisture across the area
with higher dewpoints likely along the Emerald Coast. Tonight,
with ridging aloft, a warm inversion above the surface should
persist resulting in some fog formation along the Emerald Coast
pushing somewhat inland. Locally dense fog is possible with
visibilities less than 1 mile in some spots. Overnight low
temperatures will generally hover around the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow, isolated thunderstorms are possible along the FL Big Bend
and SW GA as the seabreeze pushes inland in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, a remnant boundary propagating east from earlier
convection over AL may enhance precipitation chances across our SW
GA counties. PoPs will generally range from 15-30% across the area
due to weaker forcing. Inverted-V soundings appear evident with
DCAPE approaching 800J/kg, suggesting that a couple stronger gusts
may be possible with these storms. High temperatures are forecast to
reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area in the afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
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(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

No new changes to the forecast as a couple of shortwaves remain on
track to pass over the SE this weekend. The first will occur on
Saturday, which will allow for scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the region. This will be our
best chance for rain as Sunday`s shortwave passes more to our
north where the best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be in
SW GA counties and across the eastern Big Bend. Severe weather
isn`t anticipated either day, but a few gusty winds and heavier
showers will be possible.

After that, ensembles favor upper level ridging to take over.
However, to the west near the Continental Divide and Plains, a
broad trough develops. This could flatten the ridge towards the
southeast. At the surface, high pressure will influence the
region. It may feel like summer with temperatures rising into the
upper 80s and low 90s over the weekend, with low to mid 90s
expected next week. Overnight lows become toasty, with the mid to
upper 60s generally holding, though the low 70s are possible by
midweek.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at KABY and KVLD through the
period. KTLH and KDHN may see MVFR visibilities tomorrow morning,
though there is some uncertainty. The site with the highest
confidence is KECP where IFR visibilities will occur beginning as
early as 04z. Reduced visibilities will occur at the aforementioned
sites through 13-14z before clearing up.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into
the weekend. There may be a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and moist conditions will continue across the area as
southerly flow persist over the next several days. With this, the
seabreeze will push inland each afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms forming. Gusty and erratic winds with lightning are
possible near and within these storms. Rain and thunderstorm chances
increase notably on Saturday, particularly for SW GA. Patchy to
locally dense fog is possible each morning due to the warm and moist
pattern, particularly for our FL counties. Notably high mixing
heights will yield fair to generally good dispersions in the
afternoon, though some areas could see locally elevated dispersions
if the seabreeze is stronger than forecast.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Minor river flooding remains ongoing at Manatee Springs along the
Suwannee with water levels expected to fall into action stage
tonight or early tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, the following
rivers are expected to remain in action stage over the next
several days: the St. Marks at Newport, the lower Suwannee, and
the Aucilla on Lamont. Outside of that, no new riverine flooding
is expected.

In terms of rain fall, we could see up to around 0.25 to 0.75
inches of rain along and east of the Chattahoochee and
Apalachicola Rivers. Areas west will be lighter and range around
0.0 to 0.25 inches of rain.
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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   65  90  68  88 /   0  30  10  50
Panama City   66  84  68  85 /   0  10   0  30
Dothan        63  90  67  87 /   0  20  10  50
Albany        65  90  67  87 /   0  30  30  70
Valdosta      67  90  68  86 /  20  20  20  60
Cross City    65  90  65  87 /  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  69  80  69  80 /   0   0   0  20
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR