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714
FXUS62 KTAE 011941
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
341 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The Sea breeze is currently making its way inland across the eastern
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend with isolated showers and a few
lightning strikes developing. Coverage should remain rather sparse
and will quickly fade after sunset. Another round of fog, possibly
locally dense, is expected tonight, mostly across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend, though it could nudge its way into southern
Alabama and southern Georgia. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

Generally southeasterly flow is expected tomorrow, though another
sea breeze may set up across the eastern Big Bend. This could
collide with the Atlantic sea breeze late in the afternoon, yielding
scattered showers and storms near the Suwannee River, eastern Big
Bend, and I-75 corridor. Looking at forecast soundings, dry air
aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could result in some gusty
winds with the strongest storms. DCAPE values peak around 1000 J/kg
in the eastern Big Bend, which usually tends to be favorable for
some stronger winds during these summertime sea breeze scenarios.
Elsewhere, showers and storms are currently not expected. Highs
tomorrow afternoon will peak near 90 away from the coast with mid-
80s near the beaches.
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&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
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(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure will sit off the southeast Atlantic seaboard through
the weekend which will lead to the chance for some seabreeze
convection. In addition to that, a couple of shortwaves pass just
to our north. This could enhance shower and thunderstorm
development over the weekend. The best chances look to be on
Saturday where we could see isolated to scattered storms in SE AL
and the FL counties but up in SW GA they may be more scatter to
widespread. On Sunday, the disturbance is a favors a more northern
track, keeping the best chances for pop along and then within
several counties of the I-75 corridor for SW GA. Monday and
Tuesday, conditions should dry out in terms of precip.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Sea breeze boundary will pass through ECP and TLH, bringing a wind
shift out of the south. Isolated TSRA is possible around the TLH
terminal late this afternoon as the sea breeze lifts north.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the
next 12 hours. Patchy fog, locally dense, is possible late tonight
into early Thursday morning. Confidence is highest at TLH and ECP
where LIFR conditions are forecast, but decreases farther north and
east. This should quickly mix out after 13-14z with VFR conditions
resuming with light SE winds.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the
weekend. There may be a small chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday morning for waters west of Apalachicola.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally southeasterly to southerly transport winds around 10 mph
are expected each day across the area. Daily sea breeze pattern will
promote winds becoming more southerly during the afternoon,
especially over the Florida zones. This combined with high mixing
heights during the afternoon will yield good to locally excellent
dispersions each afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Thursday afternoon near the Suwannee River and I-75
corridor and Friday afternoon across southwest Georgia. Rain chances
increase on Saturday across the entire forecast area with the
greatest rain chances over southwest Georgia.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

No changes to the forecast as minor river flooding remains on the
Lower Suwannee this afternoon and should fall below minor flood
stage in the next day or so. With rainfall amounts staying below
0.50 inches the next few days, no additional riverine flooding is
expected.
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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   86  67  90  66 /  40  10  10   0
Panama City   82  67  84  66 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        85  65  89  64 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        86  65  89  66 /  20   0  10   0
Valdosta      86  66  90  67 /  30  10  30   0
Cross City    86  64  90  65 /  20   0  30   0
Apalachicola  78  68  81  68 /  20   0   0   0
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&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...KR