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000
FXUS62 KTAE 150723
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tranquil weather continues tonight and Monday with light southwest
flow as a ridge of high pressure slides east of the region. Expect
dry conditions with some high clouds streaming through the northwest
upper-level flow. Patchy fog is more likely after midnight tonight
into the mid-morning on Monday, especially in the FL Counties and
portions of Southeast AL, due to light return flow off the gulf and
calm winds under a stout near-surface inversion. Cannot rule out
locally dense fog, mainly in the Western FL Panhandle and perhaps
spilling into adjacent Southeast AL. Lows Monday in the 50s and
highs in the 80s, away from the gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure slowly trudges eastwards during this period, which
will leave us with lighter winds, dry weather, and some periods of
onshore flow returning moisture to the region. Patchy fog will be
possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, and potentially again
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Confidence is highest on the
western edge of the service area, mainly over SE AL and the
western FL Panhandle, potentially bleeding over into the western
most counties of SW GA and the FL Big Bend. Confidence remains on
the lower end, so opted to just keep the mention of patchy fog in
the forecast. Tuesday night into Wednesday, there could be some
high cloud interference which could limit fog growth, thus opted
to keep fog out of the forecast.

Lows for Monday night in Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid
50s. Highs for Tuesday should generally be in the mid 80s, perhaps
slightly cooler along the FL coast. Lows Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning should be in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Ensembles and cluster analysis show a period of weak upper level
ridging becoming near zonal flow mid week, with brief weak ridging
potentially returning for the end of the week. Come the weekend,
guidance shows troughing building over Great Lakes or Northeast,
which could flatten or bring a some lowering heights. Currently
mainly dry weather is forecast through the period with NBM
guidance holding back on precipitation until the weekend. There is
the potential for a shortwave to bring us showers or thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday, but confidence wasn`t high enough to add
precip chances in that early.

In terms of temperatures, warming continues to be the trend over
the period. NBM, GEFS, and ECMWF ensemble members depict
temperatures nearing or breaching 90 late in the week. Opted to
fill in with NBM EXP given it brought us closer to the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble highs. Confidence has perhaps increased ever so
slightly for temperatures, but overall remains low for the end of
the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the
period with the exception of KECP and perhaps KDHN where patchy fog
is possible. A brief period of IFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings
are possible at KECP from 10-12z this morning. Fog will clear out of
both sites at 14z with VFR conditions following for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Favorable marine conditions continue through Monday as winds will
remain light and variable and be accompanied with seas of less
than 2 feet. Light to moderate southeasterly winds take over
Tuesday as seas increase to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Dry weather through the period with gradually increasing moisture
due to southerly winds. Minimum afternoon RH values will moderate
from 20s to around 30 on Monday to the 40s on Wednesday. The main
concern will be elevated transport winds on Tuesday leading to the
potential for pockets of high dispersion. Patchy fog will become
more likely starting Monday morning and continuing through
midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Capitola, Chaires,
and Baum areas east to NE of Tallahassee near I-10 towards the
Jefferson County border this morning. Although flood waters are
beginning to slowly receded, Leon County continues to report
hazardous standing water and that several roadways remain closed
and impassable. Conditions will be reassessed again tomorrow which
will determine if another extension is needed or not.

Rivers continue to run high with flood warnings in place for
Pinetta, Quitman, above Valdosta at Skipper Bridge Rd (Withlacoochee
River), the Little River near Hahira, Aucilla at Lamont, St. Marks
Newport, Blountstown along the Apalachicola, and Thomasville and
US 27 for the Ochlockonee.

The flood warnings for the following rivers were cancelled today:
along the Chipola and Spring Creek at Iron City.

Expect minor to moderate riverine to continue into early next
week. Additional Flood Warnings may be needed along the Suwannee
River from Ellaville southward through Wilcox in the coming days.
Moderate flooding is not expected along the Suwannee.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase slightly, 20% or less,
towards the weekend as a cold front nears the region. Significant
rainfall is not currently expected, but confidence is low until
we get a better handle on when the front could impact the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  59  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        85  56  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      86  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  61  75  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR