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000
FXUS62 KTAE 191019
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
619 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Morning satellite depicts an area of high clouds moving east
across the area with the clearing line behind the clouds working
into our far western counties. Also, fog and stratus clouds are
developing over southern Alabama and working in behind the high
cloud departure. A variety of short range models depict this to
continue with fog development continuing eastward towards
Tallahassee and west of Albany. This will be the main concern this
morning and how dense the fog becomes and if a advisory will be
needed. The most likely areas of dense fog development appears to
be in our Florida counties. Fog should dissipate by mid morning.
Afterwards, expect a mostly sunny day as shortwave ridging is in
place ahead of a cold front which will be positioned roughly
across our northern row counties by dawn Saturday morning. Not
expecting much in the way of rain chances tonight as low levels
will remain dry ahead of the front. What can be expected tonight
is another round of fog development, roughly in the same areas as
this morning.

Inland temperatures today away from the coast will be well into
the 80s into the lower 90s with west winds. The seabreeze develops
and moves inland later today, switching winds to the southwest
mainly along and south of I10 before it becomes more diffuse
towards sunset. Lows tonight will fall into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms (about 30%) will be
possible for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours as a
shortwave disturbance passes through our Alabama and Georgia
counties. Most of the activity is expected to remain along and
north of I-10 for Saturday. An isolated thunderstorm may become
strong or severe with possible damaging wind gusts being the main
concern. A similar set-up is expected for Sunday, but will be more
widespread as a shortwave trough pushes behind a frontal
boundary. PoPs increase to about 70% for our northwest counties
with about 40-60% for the Tri-State region on Sunday. The frontal
boundary is, however, expected to weaken as it makes its way
through the region, along with lower instability. The amount of
rainfall accumulation is not expected to exceed 1.0 inches.

The above normal temperatures are also worth noting. Temperatures
on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to the low 90s for our
inland areas for the afternoon highs, which ranges along 5-10
degrees above the climatological normal for April 20th. Along the
immediate coast, low to mid 80s are expected. Sunday will be
slightly cooler for the Big Bend region, as our northwest counties
will be in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday due to the frontal
boundary passing through during the day on Sunday, but not making
it all the way through the CWA by the end of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The front will complete its passage through the CWA Sunday
evening and overnight hours, clearing out the rain and bringing in
cooler temperatures for the start of the work week. A surface
high will build following the front bringing us clearing skies and
gradually warming temperatures for the long term. Monday will be
seasonably cool with highs in the low to mid-70s, and a gradual
climb back to the mid 80s by midweek. Overnight low temperatures
will start in the low 50s Monday night/Tuesday morning, and will
gradually warm to the upper 50s by the end of the term. Precip
chances after Monday are minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Widespread IFR/LIFR conds have developed over the past several
hours with all but ABY being impacted. Degraded conds should reach
ABY around sunrise. These conditions will begin to improve, albeit
slowly, after dawn through mid morning. Afterwards, VFR with west
to southwest winds will prevail the remainder of the day into the
evening hours. After 06Z, appears another round of IFR/LIFR
conditions will develop and impact the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Boating conditions look favorable heading into the weekend.
Although, a cold front will be affecting our marine zones by
Sunday with a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms, yet should be
brief. Following the frontal passage, there may be a period of
cautionary conditions moving from west to east during the morning
hours on Monday. After the front, favorable conditions return with
seas of 1-2 feet with winds averaging around 5-10 knots by
midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Patchy fog is the main concern over the next several mornings,
especially in southeast Alabama and our Florida zones. Patchy
dense fog is also possible. Warming afternoon temperatures into
the upper 80s and some lower 90s under mostly sunny skies can be
expected today into Saturday. An afternoon seabreeze looks to move
inland each day turning west winds to southwesterly behind it
through the Florida zones south of I10. A cold front approaches
tonight and is draped north of the Florida counties Saturday with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in these
locations Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances begin to increase for Saturday through Sunday night.
The systems will be moving somewhat quickly with rainfall
accumulations not expected to exceed 1.0 inches, although isolated
higher amounts may be possible.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee,
Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee
has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with
additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  65  89  65 /   0   0  20  10
Panama City   81  66  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        87  65  85  63 /   0   0  40  20
Albany        89  65  87  63 /   0   0  30  20
Valdosta      89  65  89  66 /   0   0  30  10
Cross City    87  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  66  78  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery