-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
555
FXUS62 KTAE 081737
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Upper high will remain located in the southwest Gulf while the ridge
axis shifts into the western Atlantic. This will allow mid level
flow to become southwest to westerly this period while an upper low
spins across the northern Plains. Surface high pressure ridge drifts
south into the Gulf allowing surface winds to veer slightly towards
the southwest across inland locations and southerly across the Gulf
waters. Guidance does bring some breezy conditions this afternoon
with gusts in the 15-25 mph range. Area time heights and cross
sections depict a good subsidence layer from 600-400mb while low
level moisture will be confined to the sfc-900mb this morning
lifting up to around the 850mb layer this afternoon. Patchy fog is
possible this morning but should dissipate by mid morning. Due to
the strong subsidence and lack of forcing, not much in the way of
rain chances are anticipated this period. Highs will continue in the
low 90s today most locations and lows tonight falling back in to the
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

On Thursday a low pressure system moving across the midwest looks
to go over the top of a ridge across the FL Peninsula. As a
result, most of the activity across our area on Thursday is
expected to remain confined to our northernmost and
northwesternmost counties when looking at the large-scale.
However, if we zoom into the mesoscale, some hi-res guidance is
indicating the potential for some sort of QLCS developing
throughout the afternoon on Thursday moving towards the FL Big
Bend. Should these storms to the north become outflow dominant and
the outflow rushes southeast, this could be within the realm of
possibility.

On Friday the ridge slides eastward as a trough looks to move
across eastern CONUS. A fast moving shortwave coming off the
Rockies zooms eastward merging with another shortwave rounding the
base of the trough. As these two features merge, essentially
directly over our region, early Friday morning into Friday
afternoon, our risk for severe weather increases. This correlates
with why the SPC has our region, north of I-10, under a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. With low-level winds
possibly around 30-40 kts, PWATs around 2 inches and a defined
shortwave providing forcing for ascent via PVA, the ingredients
for severe would be present. Although, a limiting factor could be
timing as an earlier system would have to work against an
overnight cap if we decouple. A later system will have part of
Friday afternoon to take advantage of around 2000 J/kg of CAPE,
which could lead to higher confidence of impactful hazards. With the
higher PWATs comes an increased risk of torrential downpours leading
to localized flash flooding issues. Which is why we`re under a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC.

The front is expected to clear the region by Friday night.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s, with
overnight lows generally in the low 70s Friday morning and in the
low 60s Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Being post-frontal will lead to relatively cooler temps and a
decrease in moisture as northerly flow prevails through Monday
morning. Although surface winds will be southerly during the
afternoon hours due to the sea breeze, high pressure will lead to
large-scale subsidence. Limiting development to fair weather Cu or
developing towers that fizzle away. On Monday another shortwave
looks to move across the northern Gulf states with our region
possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds turn to being
southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving overhead, a
stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the previous
system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45 kts, the
potential for severe is once again present. We`ll have to see how
this progresses over the next few days to have better confidence,
be sure to come back for updates.

Expect relatively cooler temps to what we`ve been experiencing as of
late. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with
overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR cigs are expected to prevail at most TAF sites through
tonight. Overnight, low stratus will fill into the region with
MVFR and IFR cigs expected through mid morning. Conditions are
expected to improve slightly by the afternoon. For the afternoon
hours, we are expecting possible showers and thunderstorms to
develop over our northernmost counties affecting the DHN and ABY
terminals. Although, most of the convective activity is expected
after 18z Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes of
5-10 knots will slowly increase to moderate southerlies around 10-15
knots as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as
a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters
Friday night with north-northwest winds in its wake. Seas will
generally be 2 to 3 feet this week, with 2-4 feet seas building late
Friday as the front pushes through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern through
Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday north of
I10 and region wide Friday as a cold front moves through. High
dispersions will be the main fire weather concern over the next few
days. Severe storms are possible Friday as the cold front moves
across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A marginal risk of excessive rainfall exists for several of our
north and northwest counties on Thursday and for most of the area on
Friday as a frontal system looks to push through the region. The
primary risk here being torrential downpours within any thunderstorm
leading to a localized flash flooding risk. Otherwise, area rivers
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee   72  92  72  86 /  10  30  40  80
Panama City   75  86  72  83 /  20  20  30  60
Dothan        73  90  70  84 /  10  60  50  70
Albany        72  91  69  84 /  10  60  50  70
Valdosta      71  92  71  85 /  10  30  40  80
Cross City    69  88  71  85 /   0  10  30  80
Apalachicola  76  83  74  82 /  10  10  20  60
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Oliver