984
FXUS62 KTBW 141731
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
131 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy
  rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary
  concerns with storms that develop.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions
  by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A few showers continue to develop along the coast this afternoon.
With plenty of moisture in place (this morning`s sounding logged
a 2.4" PWAT), storm coverage will expand inland along converging
sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Later in the evening showers
and storms could drift back towards the west coast. Main hazards
today will be heavy downpours leading to localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and strong gusty winds. Quiet conditions
return overnight.

For Tuesday, the upper level ridge shifts a little further north
which will reinforce a more easterly flow over the area. This will
mean convection developing inland in the afternoon tomorrow, then
moving towards the west coast later in the evening. By Wednesday dry
air aloft and at the surface will move over most of FL ahead of an
approaching upper level low, limiting rain chances, especially
north of I4. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten up
between the upper level ridge and upper level low, increasing the
NE winds. In fact with the lower dew points, and breezy northeast
winds, conditions will feel slightly less summerlike Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday morning. However, the slight hint at fall
quickly fades back into summer like conditions by the end of the
week as the upper level low continues west into the Gulf, wrapping
moisture back over the area by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with the only
exception being showers and storms that develop and move near or
over terminals. Passing showers/storms could drop ceilings and
visibilities below VFR for a short period of time. Storms that
develop inland this afternoon have the potential to drift back
towards the coast later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Main marine hazards to begin the week will be storms that develop or
move over the waters. However, by mid week, marine conditions
deteriorate as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing the NE
winds, likely to advisory levels through early Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the period as plenty of
moisture lingers over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  77  89 /  30  60  30  20
FMY  76  92  76  91 /  50  50  30  60
GIF  75  91  75  90 /  40  60  20  30
SRQ  76  93  76  92 /  30  60  30  40
BKV  73  92  74  90 /  30  60  20  10
SPG  78  91  78  91 /  20  60  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt