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122
FXUS62 KTBW 010738
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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Troughing remains in place aloft east of the region early this
morning and will slowly be replaced by weak ridging through the rest
of the week before some shortwave energy moves by to our north this
weekend. Ridging then takes hold again early next week. At the
surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will generally remain in
control, with an east to southeast flow giving way to the west
coast sea breeze each day. We will see rain chances each day,
though some days with higher chances than others. For today,
expect a pretty similar setup as yesterday, with some showers and
a thunderstorm or two over the interior late in the day. East flow
will increase a bit for Thursday and a bit more for Friday,
leading to isolated shower activity shifting closer to the west
coast. We might see a slight uptick in the number of showers for
the weekend, then we go right back to about a 20 PoP or lower
through early next week. Overall, not much to speak of with fairly
typical early May weather.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Similar to
yesterday, a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will likely
form over the interior and southwest Florida regions and could near
some of the TAF sites, but coverage is not expected to be high.
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&&

.MARINE...
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East to southeast winds will remain over the waters through the next
several days, giving way to the sea breeze each afternoon. No
headlines are expected through the next week or so.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Relative humidity values will drop near critical levels over inland
areas for the next several afternoons, but no Red Flag conditions
are expected. Some patchy fog will be possible for the next couple
of nights.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  89  71  90  72 /  10   0  20   0
FMY  89  70  90  70 /  20  10  20  10
GIF  90  68  91  68 /  20  10  20   0
SRQ  88  69  89  70 /  10   0  10   0
BKV  90  63  92  65 /  10   0  20   0
SPG  86  73  88  74 /  10   0  10   0
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&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle