162
FXUS62 KTBW 041045
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
645 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

An upper level ridge is currently extending from Florida north into
eastern Canada, while surface high pressure over the Atlantic ridges
across northern Florida into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This
surface ridge will hold through the weekend and early next week,
then shift south during the middle to later portion of the week.
Southeasterly/easterly flow the next few days will become more
southerly during the second half of the week, with daily sea
breeze circulations turning winds onshore near the coast each
afternoon.

Enough moisture will be present to allow for isolated to scattered
showers and storms this afternoon along sea breeze boundaries.
Moisture will increase slightly on Sunday, leading to higher rain
chances, then drier air will start to shift in through the first
half of the work week and limit rain chances. Otherwise, the
stacked ridging will lead to building temperatures, with afternoon
highs climbing into the mid 90s over the interior Wednesday
through Friday. Despite the warm temperatures, heat index values
are forecast to remain around 100 or less, and will not approach
local Heat Advisory thresholds (108).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions persist across the terminals. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms will develop later this afternoon (after 21z). A
few of these showers/storms could impact the terminals. For now,
have only mentioned VCSH at KRSW, KFMY, KPGD, and KLAL. Will
continue to monitor conditions throughout the day to evaluate the
need of VCTS/TSRA in the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week,
with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each
afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday
and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind
speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will
remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the
waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Relative humidity may briefly drop to critically low levels each
afternoon this weekend, mainly over the interior. However, wind
speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag
Conditions. Otherwise, spotty high dispersion indices will be
possible each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  89  73 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  90  70  90  70 /  30  30  40  20
GIF  91  70  90  69 /  30  20  50  10
SRQ  89  71  89  71 /  20  20  30  10
BKV  91  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  10
SPG  87  75  87  74 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close