831
FXUS62 KTBW 080031
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
831 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A rather quiet evening across the area as the sea breeze collision
over the interior south into southwest Florida has struggled to
pop any convection in our area with just a line of clouds
developing. Could still see a brief shower along this line over
the next hour or two, otherwise skies will become mostly clear
overnight with some patchy fog possible over inland parts of the
Nature Coast. Wednesday looks similar to today with mainly dry
conditions, except a slim chance of a late afternoon or early
evening shower over the interior along the sea breezes. This will
allow temperatures to warm into the middle 90s over the interior
while locations near the coast will only reach the middle to upper
80s thanks to the sea breeze. Overall current forecast looks on
track with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will diminish this evening and
become light southeast overnight and then increase to 5 to 10
knots during Wednesday morning. Sea breeze will shift winds to
southwest to west during Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Minimal changes to the pattern for the next couple of days as high
pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control. Ridging aloft
will also continue to build over the area today and tomorrow,
supporting the unseasonably warm temperatures and lack of rain. A
sturdier west coast sea breeze will push any shower development
further east once contact with the east coast sea breeze is
established. Given the dry conditions of the atmosphere, showers
and storms will be very isolated, if they get going at all. The
pattern holds steady through Thursday, with afternoon temperatures
well into the 90s each day, and minimal PoPs.

Moving into Friday a weak cold front dips into Florida, bringing a
bit of added moisture and increased chances of rain, especially
for areas north of I4. This front is expected to stall to the
south, keeping rain chances elevated through the weekend. Another
system early next week moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, looks to
bring more significant rain chances, but it is still too early to
tell the specifics of that system as of now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

With the high pressure ridge across Florida, winds will continue to
be mostly out of the S/SE before turning onshore each afternoon with
sea breeze development. Rain stays away from the waters until Friday
when a weak cold front moves over the northern waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the period, even with
critically low RH values, winds will remain below criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  77  89 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  74  93  74  92 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  71  95  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
SRQ  72  89  75  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  92  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  88  78  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme