788
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 25-Apr 27 2024

             Apr 25       Apr 26       Apr 27
00-03UT       0.67         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       0.33         4.00         3.67
06-09UT       0.00         3.33         3.00
09-12UT       1.33         3.00         2.67
12-15UT       3.00         2.67         2.67
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         2.67
18-21UT       3.33         2.00         3.00
21-00UT       4.00         2.67         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2024

              Apr 25  Apr 26  Apr 27
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 25-27 Apr
due to the position and flare potential of several active regions on the
disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 24 2024 2259 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2024

              Apr 25        Apr 26        Apr 27
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a slight
chance for an R3 (Strong) event, over 25-27 Apr.