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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KTFX 221712
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1112 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be windy at times today, but not quite as windy as Sunday.
Quiet weather conditions are expected on Tuesday, while Wednesday
looks to be the warmest day not only of the week, but for awhile.
It turns cooler by the end of the week, with lower elevation rain
and mountain snow possible by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Updated model guidance was added to the short term but generally,
no major changes were made to the forecast. The thunderstorm
potential increased ever so slightly this afternoon in northern
Blaine county, however, confidence still remains generally less
than 20% with most of the thunderstorm threat still off to the
east along the hi-line.

-thor

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
1112 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 (22/18Z TAF Period)

Low pressure at the surface and aloft tracking east across
Saskatchewan will maintain gusty northwest surface winds across most
of north-central and southwest MT through this afternoon before
winds begin to diminish this evening. Gusts in excess of 30kts are
expected at KCTB, KHVR and KLWT with gusts to around 25 kts or less
across southwest MT. Surface winds veer towards the north this
evening and decrease to 10kts or less by 06z Tuesday. VFR conditions
prevail with just some shallow cumulus and scattered high clouds
across most areas while some broken mid level clouds and moisture
rotate through eastern portions of north-central MT and the KHVR
area this afternoon. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
Today through Tuesday...Quiet conditons are residing over the CWA
this morning, while a weak upper level disturbance is approaching
the Havre/Turner areas in our northeast section of the CWA. Expect
some increasing clouds, and a small chance for a passing shower in
the Turner area later today. It will be a bit windy today,
especially over North Central MT, but it should not be as windy as
Sunday was for most areas. The disturbance exits the area tonight
for generally dry and seasonable temperatures on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper level ridge will become
westerly during this period. Additionally, upper level
disturbances will move from west to east over Southwest MT on both
Wed and Thu. This will result in passing showers over Central and
Southwest MT. There is a low probability of some lightning on
Wed, but to low to introduce into the forecast right now.
Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week and likely
the next several days as well.

Friday through Monday...A large upper level trof will develop over
the Northern Rockies during this period. The forecast models agree
on it turning cooler over the entire CWA. However, the forecast
models all differ on the amount and type of precipitation that
could fall next Fri thru Sun. Some models have 1 to 2 inches of
QPF over Central and Southwest MT, while other models generally
have between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of QPF. Overall, it does look
like lower elevation rain and mountain snow will impact portions
of the CWA Fri and Sat. Right now the heaviest snowfall would
occur in the mountains around Big Sky and Pony, where there is a
60 percent that snowfall could exceed 8 inches in these areas. The
overall confidence in the weekend precipitation is low, since the
forecast models continue to differ from run to run. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  30  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  54  28  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  58  32  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  58  26  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  52  21  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  58  31  63  36 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  51  28  58  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

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