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007
FXUS63 KTOP 110450
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather will persist through Saturday.

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon
  through Monday. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe
  early next week.

- The greatest precipitation chances of 90-100 percent will
  occur late Sunday night into Monday morning

- Most areas will receive up to 1 inch with some locally higher
  amounts possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Early this afternoon a positive tilt H5 trough extended from Quebec
Canada west-southwest across the Great Lakes, Iowa, then into NE.  A
secondary upper trough was retrograding southwestward to the Four
Corners region. West-southwest mid-level flow of 30 to 40 KTS
were noted across eastern KS, southward across the southern
Plains.

At the surface, a surface low was located across southern IN, with a
surface cold front extending southwest across AR into northern TX.

Tonight through Saturday night:

The positive tilt H5 trough across eastern NE will shift southeast.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the trough axis for an
isolated shower or sprinkle across the far northeast counties
late this afternoon and this evening. The upper trough across
the four corners area will continue to retrograde southwest into
AZ. An upper trough will dig southeast from Central Canada
across the upper Great Lakes and amplify across New England and
the and Mid Atlantic states. A southern stream H5 ridge will
shift east across KS and the southern Plains on Saturday. Expect
dry conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Monday night:

The upper trough across the Four Corner region will lift
east-northeast across the Plains. The combination of isentropic lift
ahead of modified Gulf moisture return and DCVA ahead of the
trough axis will provide enough ascent for showers and
thunderstorms to develop from west to east across the area late
Sunday morning through Monday evening. At this time MUCAPE
values will remain below 1000 J/KG and effective shear will be
much weaker across KS. So the environment should only support
general thunder. The severe weather threat will remain well
south of the CWA across north TX and eastern OK into AR. Storm
total QPF from Sunday through Tuesday morning will range from 1
to 1.7 inches of rainfall. The highest PoPs will occur late
Sunday night into Monday morning with an 80-100 percent chance
of rain. Cloud cover and periods of showers and thunderstorms
will keep highs a bit cooler Sunday afternoon in the mid to
upper 70s. Behind a surface cold front, Monday highs will only
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday through Friday:

A northern stream H5 trough will move onshore across the Pacific
northwest and dig southeast across the central Rockies on Wednesday,
then east-southeast across the central Plains. The western Gulf of
Mexico looks to be cut off from richer moisture return due to a
surface front off the SE TX coast. However, there will be
enough DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis for showers and a few
thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday morning. A
southern stream H5 trough will lift northeast across TX into AR
Thursday night into Friday, keeping shower and thunderstorm
chances southeast of the CWA. highs will be in the 70s through
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Low level moisture return holds off until after the forecast
period. So VFR conditions with increasing high clouds late in
the period are expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters