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000
FXUS63 KTOP 211714
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and sunnier today with temperatures getting into the 60s.

- Gusty conditions will be expected Monday with areas approaching
  wind advisory criteria, especially in central Kansas.

- An active weather pattern is expect this week with several
  chances for rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A chilly night is taking shape across northeastern Kansas as surface
ridging continues to move in from the north, pushing cloud cover
further south. Areas north of I-70 have mostly cleared and should
see efficient radiational cooling through sunrise. Expect
temperatures here to range from around freezing to the mid 30s with
a Frost Advisory in effect until 8 AM. For the remainder of the day,
mostly sunny skies and ridging overhead will warm afternoon
temperatures into the low to mid 60s. As we approach the evening and
overnight hours, the surface ridge slides south and east of the area
returning winds back to the south, setting the stage for WAA
Monday.

By Monday, a tight pressure gradient will develop between the
exiting surface ridge and a deepening lee cyclone in the western
portions of SD. Gusty conditions will ensue over the afternoon
Monday with areas in central Kansas potentially reaching wind
advisory criteria. Efficient low-level WAA, sunny skies and deep BL
mixing will promote a quick warm-up by the afternoon as temperatures
reach the 70s area-wide; low 70s across east-central KS and upper
70s for central and north-central KS. By Monday evening and
overnight, a cold front along the southeast-moving surface trough
will move across the area increasing chances for rain and a few
thunderstorms. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder along the
front, but rain showers appear more likely at this time.

The next few days to follow will see temperatures fluctuate
minimally with highs in the low to mid 70s. Our next system comes
onshore Thursday and will set the stage for additional rounds of
rain and thunderstorms for the week`s end. A few mid-level waves
embedded in southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low could bring
some early elevated rain and storm chances Thursday morning before
the main waves enters the region. Shear and instability needed for
severe weather should co-locate somewhere across the central Plains
as this system moves east, but is still too far out to pin down
exact timing and location of any severe weather threat.
Long range deterministic guidance does have decent agreement with
the synoptic-scale features, but still has a wide range of timing
solutions for when the mesoscale features pass over northeastern
Kansas. There will likely be many changes to location and timing of
rain and storm chances over the next several days, so make sure to
stay updated with the latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions prevail. Northwest winds become southerly overnight,
but remain light. Winds strengthen from the southwest by 14z
Monday with gusts of 30-35kt through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Flanagan