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792
FXUS63 KTOP 011057
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active weather pattern continues today through Thursday and
  as well as this weekend with persistent chances for
  thunderstorms.

- Additional chances for storms will continue early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Early this morning convection continues across Oklahoma with the
outflow boundary extending from north central Arkansas into southern
Oklahoma at 07Z. Northeasterly to easterly winds were occurring
across across central and eastern Kansas. Profilers show a 50kt
850mb jet from the Texas Panhandle into far southwest Kansas. VAD
winds were still east to southeast across much of Kansas. IR
satellite at 0730Z was showing some cooling cloud tops in north
central Oklahoma.

For today, a mid level trough will move across the western states
today while a southwest flow will continue across the central and
southern Plains. Some perturbations will eject northeast through
this flow through tonight. At the surface low pressure will deepen
across southeast Colorado while a dryline sets up across southwest
Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. A warm front is forecast to move
northward to near I-70 later this afternoon. This mornings
convection in Oklahoma may affect the timing of this occurring, so
will need to monitor through the day. Southerly winds over the
frontal slope will bring a chance for elevated convection this
morning into early this afternoon. Additional storms may develop
near the front in central and north central Kansas later this
afternoon, while storms develop near the dryline in southwest
Kansas. Forecast soundings show elevated instability of 1200-1500
J/kg north of the warm front this morning which will bring a
marginal severe hail threat. Instability increases later this
afternoon in north central Kansas where additional storms may
develop along the warm front. Forecast soundings suggest ample shear
and instability as well as 0-1km SRH of 300-400 M2/S2. Main hazards
would be large hail greater than 2 inches, potential for tornadoes
and damaging wind gusts. Cluster of storms lift northward during the
evening hours north of the warm front that moves into far northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated storms may maintain as they
move northeast through the warm sector, posing a continued severe
threat. Some locally heavy rainfall may occur, especially across the
northern counties tonight.

Thursday the mid level trough will move into the Plains and take a
negative tilt as it moves into the northern Plains. A cold frontal
boundary will extend from a surface low in southeast Nebraska
Thursday morning across north central Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle. Storms are expected to be ongoing within a rich moisture
environment as a 50kt LLJ provides excellent moisture flux into the
central Plains. The front will progress eastward through the day on
Thursday with storms exiting the area Thursday night. Additional
heavy rainfall may cause excessive runoff leading to flooding and
this will need to be watched for any potential flood watches.

Additional waves move through the central and southern Plains though
the weekend with a continuation of precipitation chances. The active
pattern continues into early next week as another trough moves out
across the Plains posing another severe weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through 15Z, then chances for
scattered SHRA and some TSRA commence with higher confidence
near 18Z and have added vcts. Also winds will be northeast to
easterly for much of the period then if the front can lift north
of the terminals after 00Z winds will shift to the southeast.
Speeds will generally be around 10kts. MVFR cigs are expected
after 15Z at MHK, then possible at TOP and FOE after 18Z. More
prolonged precipitation after 02Z expected with periods of tsra
possible through 12Z Thursday.
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&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53