000
FXUS63 KTOP 131728
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s today and Sunday,
  approaching record values.

- The combination of breezy winds, low relative humidity, and
  very warm temperatures will create elevated fire danger
  across the area today.

- Strong system brings storms, including the potential for severe
  storms, to the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Mid-level ridging occupies the central CONUS this morning with
surface winds shifting to the south ahead of a potent trough off the
west coast. The pressure gradient tightens through the day with
south-southwest winds increasing to 15-25mph sustained and gusts of
30-40mph this afternoon. Mixing to around 850mb where temperatures
of 18-20 degrees Celsius are expected will lead to a very warm day
with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. This mixing will also
bring drier air to the surface with afternoon relative humidity
values falling to 15-20 percent across north central Kansas and
below 30 for the rest of the area, creating elevated fire danger.
Refer to the Fire Weather Section below for more details. There
continues to be a signal for elevated showers or even a thunderstorm
to develop across north central Kansas late this afternoon into the
early evening as a subtle shortwave advances through. Most of the
00z HREF members show some sort of scattered shower activity between
23-02z, but abundant dry air below 600mb should evaporate most, if
not all, of this precipitation before it reaches the ground.
Inverted-V soundings support a stronger wind gust if a storm does
develop.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s. A surface trough moves into the area,
creating a reprieve from the strong winds through the day.
Relative humidity values fall into the low 20 percents north of
Interstate 70 during the afternoon, but light winds will limit
overall fire danger.

The potent western trough is progged to advance eastward on Monday,
taking on a neutral-to-negative tilt as it ejects across the Plains
late Monday into Tuesday. Guidance continues to show a slower
progression of the trough, but differences remain in the location of
key features as the wave ejects. There is some potential for
afternoon/evening convection in the WAA regime although moisture
quality remains in question and a capping inversion could preclude
development. Best chances for storms comes late Monday into Tuesday
as the closed low tracks from the TX/OK panhandles into southeast
Nebraska and initial convection across southern Kansas into Oklahoma
pushes northeast. Details are still hard to decipher this far
out, but enhanced large-scale ascent will likely support line
segments or clusters of storms over discrete supercells. Even
with the unfavorable time of day, the overall CAPE/shear
environment remains supportive of severe storms. Refinement of
the forecast and additional details will be ironed out over the
next couple of days. Winds strengthen Monday night into Tuesday
as well given the proximity of the surface low and could
approach advisory levels.

The slower progression of the system could keep far eastern Kansas
in the warm sector even into midday Tuesday. A narrow axis of
instability will remain ahead of the approaching Pacific front which
could support additional strong to severe storms along or just east
of the CWA border. Chances for showers and storms continue on the
backside of the system through the day Tuesday before the closed low
lifts towards the Great Lakes by early Wednesday. The next system
moves through Wednesday into Thursday bringing another chance for
showers and storms to the area along with cooler air to end next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds are the main concern for this forecast. SOuthwest winds
18-22kts with gusts to 36kts expected through 01Z then southwest
10-15kts. LLWS develops after 06Z and ends in the 10-11Z time
period with a 45-50kt low level jet. Winds become light and
back to the northeast in the 15Z-17Z time period. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

South-southwest winds increase today with sustained winds of 15-
25mph and gusts of 30-40mph. As temperatures warm into the 80s,
relative humidity values fall to 15-20 percent across north central
Kansas and below 30 for the rest of the area. Fire partners indicate
that even with green-up well underway, the abnormally warm
temperatures along with recent dry conditions will work to further
dry fuels and could lead to more erratic fire behavior. There is
also concern that any fires from yesterday could reignite. With all
of this considered, elevated fire danger will be in place today and
any burning should be postponed.

Sunday features slightly warmer temperatures and relative humidity
values in the 20-30 percent range, but winds will be much lighter,
generally 10-15mph. A change in wind direction occurs as a weak
surface front moves through with early morning winds from the
southwest becoming northeasterly through the day and eventually
easterly Sunday evening. Light winds should limit fire weather
concerns overall, although shifting winds could make fires more
difficult to control.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

            Record High Temps           Forecast High Temps

April 13    95 in Topeka (2006)         89 in Topeka
89 in Concordia (1936)      90 in Concordia

April 14    92 in Topeka (2006)         90 in Topeka
            90 in Concordia (2002)      89 in Concordia

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Picha