278
FXUS64 KTSA 171958
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
158 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

 - Low rain chances for portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
   and west central Arkansas through this evening.

 - An Arctic front arrives tonight to Saturday morning, bringing
   bitterly cold temperatures continuing through mid week.

 - Low chance for snow flurries north of I-40 Saturday/Saturday evening
   and Monday night for SE OK.

 - Warmer temperatures expected by mid week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Light rain occurring ahead of Arctic front/upper disturbance will
continue mainly to the north of I-40 through the evening hours.
Much colder air behind the front will settle in overnight across
the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Very cold air will be in place across the area by tomorrow
morning. A second upper wave may result in flurries or very brief
light snow mainly across NE OK and NW tomorrow afternoon and
evening. At this time, no accumulations are expected. Cold air
will remain entrenched across the forecast area into next week.
Another wave within the deep cyclonic flow may bring flurries or
very low chances for light snow across SE OK Monday night.
High temperatures will begin to modify towards the freezing mark
on Tuesday for parts of the area, with a significant improvement
towards seasonal averages Wednesday. Another passing wave late in
the forecast period may yield low precip chances for SE OK by
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions are the rule across the area this morning with gusty
southerly winds. Used a PROB30 to cover the potential for showers at
the western Arkansas sites late this afternoon. VFR conditions continue
tonight into Saturday at the Oklahoma sites with the winds becoming northerly
behind the frontal passage this evening/tonight. MVFR ceilings are more likely
behind the front at the western Arkansas sites tonight into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  34  14  27 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   34  42  19  28 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   31  40  16  30 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   23  32  11  25 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   27  37  13  25 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   28  35  14  20 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   29  37  16  27 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   26  32  13  22 /  20  10   0   0
F10   28  37  16  28 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  44  21  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10