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000
FXUS64 KTSA 061101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 234 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

The cold front has cleared all except the far southeastern corner
of the forecast area. The strongest convection has also pushed to
the east of the area, with dry conditions still expected to arrive
by sunrise. Post-frontal wind gusts have been under the 40 mph
advisory threshold and the expectation is that this will persist.
As such, the existing Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on
time at 3 am. Winds will remain gusty through much of the morning
and perhaps into the afternoon across mainly southeast Oklahoma,
but with surface high pressure sliding in from the north this
afternoon, wind speeds will decrease accordingly. With below
normal temperatures today, the winds will make for an unpleasant
time if you find yourself outdoors, despite sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

Below normal temperatures will persist into Tuesday despite a
return to southerly low level winds on the backside of the
departing surface high. A weaker disturbance and associated
surface front will move through Tuesday night, but moisture is
expected to be limited enough to preclude precipitation
development. A notable increase in cloudiness is expected however.

The real warmup begins Wednesday and continues into Thursday and
Friday with the approach of another cold front early in the
weekend. Record high temperatures are not a slam dunk either
Thursday or Friday, but the potential is there both days. In fact,
this forecast will feature projected record highs for Friday at
Tulsa, Fort Smith and McAlester - record highs that were set only
last year at each site. Again, though, questions about the extent
of the cloud cover Friday do provide increased uncertainty as to
whether that day will be record setting or not.

Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Friday night and
extend into Saturday before drier air moves in Saturday night
following the frontal passage. The winter weather potential with
this system appears reduced from the previous few days, as most of
the post-frontal/cold air precipitation currently looks to occur
north of the forecast area in both deterministic and ensemble
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. The main aviation
impact will be the wind. Strong N winds behind a cold front will
continue to gust near 25 kts thru the day, subsiding by mid-
afternoon. Winds will be light tonight, along with some passing
high cloud across the north.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  29  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  29  52  33 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   47  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   44  27  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  24  49  29 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   42  27  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   45  29  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
F10   47  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  32  52  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30