Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261541
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Cold front is currently near a KMLC-KFYV line this
morning. The front will continue to edge southward
today. Temperatures are some 10 to 20 degrees cooler
behind the front this morning than they were this time
yesterday. An isolated shower or two linger this morning
across northeast Oklahoma behind the front. Will continue
low chances of showers and storms for portions of the area
this morning and again later this afternoon in association
with the frontal boundary.

Have only made a few adjustments to the forecast for today
to better reflect current trends in observations and short
-term model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

The true post frontal airmass will be felt on Monday as surface
high pressure begins to build in behind the front. Most locations
will see highs near 80 with some mid 80s possible across the
southern part of the CWA. A few spotty showers could still linger
around the area, but chances appear below mentionable at this
point. Monday night looks to be the coolest of the period as the
surface ridge axis becomes draped over the region. Some locations
will dip down into the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday morning. The
gradual warm up will begin on Tuesday, though temperatures Tuesday
will still be 5-10 degrees below normal. A mid level wave will
move through the northwesterly flow Monday night into Tuesday
morning and wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated shower or
two along the OK/KS border toward sunrise Tuesday, though moisture
will be lacking. Nevertheless, introduced low PoPs across our
northern row of counties for this possibility Tuesday morning.

Temperatures return to near seasonal norms as we head into
Wednesday as the upper ridge builds back in from the west, though
a little weaker than what we saw last week. Thursday and into the
weekend will see highs once again return to the mid 90s with
increasing humidity also likely, resulting in higher heat index
values. It looks like the upper ridge will amplify across
Intermountain West late next week with weak northwesterly flow
present over our area. A mid level trough moving through the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region could push another
frontal boundary near or into the area by the weekend. This would
result in an increase in shower and storm chances.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning
across far northeast Oklahoma, mainly impacting KBVO. Still
anticipate brief MVFR ceilings behind cold front with VFR
conditions expected at all TAF sites by mid afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  64  83  64 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   92  68  85  65 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   88  66  84  63 /  10  20  20   0
BVO   79  59  80  59 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   82  60  82  58 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   81  61  81  60 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   84  63  82  63 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   79  60  80  60 /  10  10  10  20
F10   83  63  82  63 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   96  70  85  64 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12


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