834
FXUS64 KTSA 150515
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

 - Storm chances increase areawide Wednesday as another storm system
   moves over the region. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty downburst
   winds are possible, but organized severe weather is unlikely.

 - Low-medium afternoon thunderstorm chances continue Thursday
   and Friday.

 - Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Widely scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue
to be possible through the overnight hours, especially across
western Arkansas, as a weak mid level disturbance tracks westward
toward the region. Severe weather is not expected with this
activity, just some brief downpours and lightning will be the
primary concern through sunrise. Some patchy fog may also occur
across southeast Oklahoma through the early morning hours before
rain chances begin to increase in this area.

The wave will move into the local region through the day
Wednesday, with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the
afternoon hours. Increasing deep layer moisture will lead
primarily to a locally heavy rain threat with isolated instances
of flash flooding possible owing to the relatively slow storm
motions. Deep layer shear will remain fairly weak, limiting the
organized severe potential, but some stronger updrafts could
produce locally strong downburst wind gusts upwards of 50 mph.
Storm coverage will wane after sunset, but there will still be
some lingering showers and storms into the evening. Increased
cloud cover and storm activity will keep temps near to slightly
below normal for Wednesday.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Additional, diurnal scattered thunderstorm chances will continue
Thursday afternoon as the mid level trough axis and deep moisture
profiles remain in the vicinity. Less coverage of storms is expected
by Friday afternoon as heights rise and upper level ridging builds
into the Southern Plains. Still, some isolated afternoon showers and
storms will be possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma.
Temperatures remain near normal through Friday. Upper ridging then
really expands into the region through the weekend into early next
week. The result will be drier and warmer conditions as temperatures
rise back above normal into the mid and upper 90s. Humidity levels
will remain elevated through the period as well and heat headline
potential will again be on the rise by early next week as the more
extreme heat builds over the area. some guidance begins to
retrograde the ridge back to the west toward the middle and end of
next week which could bring a return of rain chances and take a bite
out of the extreme heat for a bit. But confidence is low in the
expected evolution of the ridge much beyond the current forecast
range.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions will be predominant outside of shower and storm
activity through this TAF period. There is a chance of light MVFR
fog at KMLC, but increasing cloud from the east casts some
uncertainty as to whether it will happen. There is a small chance
of showers at the NW AR sites over the next 6 to 8 hours. The
greatest coverage will be from midday through early evening.
Coverage will be high enough over NW AR to warrant prevailing
shower mention, with some prob30 for thunder and lower vsbys. Some
chance may linger there into the evening thru about 04Z. The
latest guidance suggests things should be quiet areawide after
that time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  91  75  93 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   72  91  73  93 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   71  90  73  91 /  30  20  10  10
BVO   71  90  73  93 /  20  10   0  10
FYV   68  86  70  89 /  30  40  10  10
BYV   68  85  70  89 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   70  88  72  90 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   70  88  72  91 /  30  30  10  10
F10   70  89  71  90 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   70  88  71  89 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30