348
FXUS64 KTSA 080038
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
738 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Quad
Cities, with a ridge axis extending southwest from there across
the forecast area. As a result, clear skies, light winds and dry
air in place will set the stage for optimal radiational cooling
tonight. Forecast lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s haven`t been
observed since late April- early May. There were no noticeable
changes to the going forecast.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Surface high pressure continued to be the main feature across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon in the wake
of the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday. In
response...east to northeasterly winds along with mostly clear to
a few mid clouds were common for the CWA. Cooler and drier
conditions were also observed this afternoon with temps in the 70s
to lower 80s.

Surface high pressure is expected to hold over the region
tonight...which combined with clear skies and light easterly
winds will aid in low temps falling into the 50s for most
locations. Meanwhile...the normal cool locations...especially
over far Northwest Arkansas....could see low temps in the upper
40s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

The cool and drier conditions continue Sunday before surface high
pressure center begins to move off to the east. This will allow
for another cool start to Monday morning across the CWA. As the
surface high departs...southerly winds return during the day
Monday which will help to warm most locations back into the 80s
for highs Monday afternoon. A warming trend looks to then continue
into the middle part of the upcoming week.

Low level moisture is progged to begin lifting back into the
region Tuesday into Wednesday...with the greater moisture return
Wednesday into Thursday. Have delayed/slowed the moisture return
Tuesday compared to the NBM as low level flow across Eastern Texas
is forecast to be more easterly than southerly with yesteday`s
frontal boundary holding near the Gulf Coast.

Latest model solutions continue to indicate a tropical system
lifting out of the Western Gulf through Louisiana for the second
half of the upcoming week. 12z data suggest the track may be
slightly slower/more southeast to east of the CWA Thursday/Friday
compared to previous runs. Thus...shower and thunderstorm
potentials...albeit only about 15-30 percent...look to be more
Thursday across Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas. With the
CWA looking to be on the west/northwest side of this system...the
greater QPF forecast remains southeast and east of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with clear skies
and light winds, generally out of the northeast this evening and
east to southeast Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  81  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   54  80  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   45  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  77  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   47  76  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   53  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  80  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
F10   51  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06