Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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282
FXUS64 KTSA 112313
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will be moving through the TAF sites this evening and
overnight, resulting in a wind shift to the NE. VFR cigs will also
develop during the period as well. Otherwise, remaining TAF elements
will remain VFR through the entire period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 226 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Breezy, warm and dry conditions persist this afternoon in pre-
frontal environment. Wind speeds remain below critical levels and
will gradually decrease though the rest of the afternoon with
weakening pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold front. The
front should arrive in northeast OK around 00z with a period of
gusty north winds, but should stay below wind advisory criteria
based on upstream conditions. Some ongoing fires northwest of
Tulsa area will see wind shift in the 00-02z time frame it
appears.

Shallow front likely will hang up in the terrain to some degree
Monday with another warm afternoon to the south, and temps notably
cooler across northeast OK and far northwest AR. Guidance remains
consistent in breaking out convection in the elevated frontal zone
perhaps as early as late Monday afternoon, with more robust
development possible Monday evening as stronger WAA develops in
the 850-700 MB level. Steep lapse rates above 700 mb will
overspread this region with a few stronger updrafts potentially
supporting some mainly sub-severe hail threat. Most favorable area
appears south of I-44 though a few high-res solutions depict
development a bit farther north.

Front should eventually push farther south Tuesday with our area
remaining on the cool side for several days, with some reinforcing
shots of cooler air. There will be periodic rain chances as a few
subtle waves in westerly flow pass through. Still appears that
Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with Friday are the periods
with highest rain chances. Temperatures remain below normal for
the foreseeable future with severe weather chances basically nil
through next weekend at least.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23



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