Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232255
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
555 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Low ceilings will spread northward overnight and lower to IFR
heights early Monday morning before beginning to slowly improve
late morning and into the afternoon. BVO is the only terminal
likely to see VFR conditions during the latter part of the TAF
period, much like today. The NW AR terminals should see a period
with MVFR visibilities in addition to the reduced ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Rain/thunder chances tonight into Monday with ejecting NE TX mid
level low and again Tuesday night into Wednesday with a cold front
are the main forecast challenges today.

Models have trended toward ejecting the mid level low over NE TX
more to the northeast as it merges with a PV max over the central
Plains tonight into Monday morning. As such, PoPs were raised
across far eastern OK and especially NW AR. Some weak elevated
instability is progged in the models as well, so an isolated
thunder mention was added. After this system lifts out, some
isolated storms are possible mainly in the terrain of NW AR
Monday afternoon.

An amplifying upper trough over the central CONUS will force a
fairly strong cold front into the region Tuesday night. There will
be enough instability to work with to warrant shower and storm
chances with the front. The better chances for storms on Wednesday
will be south of the region where the front will be by afternoon.
There is some suggestion that a weak wave will traverse the basal
portion of the central Plains trough and produce some showers
over the region by Wednesday night. Will leave low PoPs in the
forecast to cover.

The models continue to back off on the late week front. The latest
ECMWF now stalls the boundary over NE OK/NW AR Friday morning and
quickly retreats north as a warm front by Friday afternoon out of
our area. Low level moisture will be meager due to the recent
early week fropa and there is not any upper support to be found.
Will therefore remove PoPs Thursday night thru Saturday.
Rain/storm chances may increase toward the latter part of next
weekend as a weak front approaches.

Temperature wise, there should be a steady warming trend back
above average ahead of the front, especially by Tuesday with more
sunshine expected. Temps fall back well below average by Wednesday
behind the strong front, but will climb again thru the remainder
of the week and into next weekend. The humidity will also return
during this time frame.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....22


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