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000
FXUS64 KTSA 091542
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Ill defined sfc boundary currently extends through far NW AR with
24hr Td change plots depicting an axis of pooled moisture
west of the boundary. Weak convergence will augment sfc heating to
produce scattered to numerous storms this afternoon within the
instability axis across far NE OK into NW AR. Lesser coverage is
expected further westward. Similar to previous days isolated
briefly severe storms will be possible. The forecast is tracking
well and afternoon precip chances were increased slightly in the
previously mentioned favored zone.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A thunderstorm complex is progged to develop across the High
Plains and drop southeast into the CWA late tonight into Saturday
morning. There is an isolated potential of storm development ahead
of the approaching MCS...though the main storm chances increase
after 08-09z as the MCS looks to enter Eastern Oklahoma. Through
the morning hours this complex moves across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas with the potential for locally damaging winds
and heavy rainfall. Latest indications/short-term guidance show
the MCS pushing east southeast completely through the CWA with a
lingering outflow boundary near to just south of the Red River
Saturday afternoon. The placement of this boundary will be the
focus for additional storm development for the afternoon/evening
hours...with the true warm sector along and south of the
boundary. Depending on this location...will determine the amount
of severe potential across the CWA. At this time the greater
potential looks to be over far Southeast Oklahoma into Texas.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances become possible across
Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas Saturday
evening/overnight as a lead disturbance...to a shortwave dropping
southward through the Plains...moves through the region. The
shortwave is expected to push a cold front across the CWA Sunday.
Depending on the amount of moisture left over behind the lead
disturbance will determine shower and thunderstorm potential with
the front as it moves through the region. By Sunday evening the
cold front is forecast to push south of the Red River and become
nearly stationary for Monday. Behind this boundary...cooler
conditions with highs around 80 deg to mid 80s are possible for
the majority of the CWA.

Latest model solutions Tuesday into the latter part of next week
show split upper level flow over the CONUS with the sub-tropical
jet moving across the Southern Plains. During this time
period...the boundary south of the Red River is progged to begin
lifting northward back into the CWA as a warm front. The
combination of the increased flow aloft and a boundary and
moisture advecting into the region will allow for the return of
shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Thursday...before
another shortwave can move through the region Thursday. These
features along with instability over the region will help to
create at least limited severe potentials through mid week. At
this time the greater precip potentials look to be along and north
of the boundary Tuesday night/Wednesday. With these precip
chances...temps for the middle part of next week look to remain in
the mid 80s for much of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Main precipitation starting to shift southeast of NW AR TAF sites
this morning. This same area will have the best chance for additional
shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon with lesser coverage further
west into eastern Oklahoma. Still the potential for convective complex
to move into portions of eastern Oklahoma overnight. IFR conditions
will be possible in the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  67  87  68 /  30  40  70  50
FSM   90  68  87  69 /  50  20  60  50
MLC   92  66  86  67 /  10  20  70  40
BVO   90  64  87  64 /  30  60  70  60
FYV   86  63  84  63 /  60  30  60  50
BYV   84  64  85  65 /  50  30  60  60
MKO   91  67  86  67 /  30  30  70  50
MIO   87  66  85  65 /  60  40  60  60
F10   91  66  85  66 /  20  40  70  40
HHW   91  69  87  67 /  10  10  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...12