Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 151449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
949 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019


Forecast is on track, and no update is planned at this time. Well
above normal temperatures and triple digit heat index values will
be the main concern once again. Much like yesterday, there is
some concern on the potential for diurnal thunderstorm
development in the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma, but
given the minimal development yesterday, POPs do not appear
warranted for now.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 552 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/

Scattered fair weather CU expected this afternoon, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light
S-SW winds today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/

Ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Plains
Today with southerly winds combined with warm and humid conditions
common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. High temps
this afternoon should be within a degree or two of yesterdays
highs...which will create heat index values in the mid 90s to
around 103 degrees to be possible. A non-zero potential of a diurnal
isolated shower/storm could also be possible again this afternoon
within the higher terrain locations of Southeast Oklahoma. Like
yesterday...will keep pops below mentionable criteria due to the
isolated potential coverage.

The ridge over the Plains is progged to hold in place through
Tuesday before becoming more oriented from the Southern Plains to
the Great Lakes region Wednesday as a wave looks to move through
the Northern Plains. This position of the ridge looks to remain
into the weekend...and then shift southeast ahead of a wave
forecast to push across the Plains at the end of the forecast

In response to the ridge movement this week...warm and
humid conditions should continue over the CWA into Tuesday with
maybe slightly cooler for the second half of the week being on
the western periphery of the ridge. Also...with being in the
western periphery...slight shower and thunderstorm chances could
become possible each day Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Greater precip
chances look to be possible as the end of the forecast period with
a potential wave moving through the region Sunday/Monday.




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