-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
609
FXUS64 KTSA 022327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Remnant MCV left over from an overnight MCS continues to slowly
lift northeast across far northeastern Oklahoma this afternoon.
Enough instability has developed ahead of this feature for some
scattered thunderstorm initiation this afternoon. Environmental
conditions don`t favor much in the way of organized severe weather
potential with this activity, with fairly weak lapse rates aloft
and weak deep layer shear to support updraft organization. Storms
could briefly pulse to near severe limits with hail being the
main threat, but most activity should stay below severe thresholds
across far northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Additionally, a
cold front is beginning to enter northeast Oklahoma and scattered
thunderstorms are also expected to form along the boundary
throughout eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as it slides
southeastward through the evening. Again, the environment does not
support widespread severe potential, but some strong to
marginally severe storms remain possible with this activity as
well, especially across parts of eastern Oklahoma where clearing
skies have allowed for a little more destabilization this
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will continue through the
evening and overnight hours near the surface boundary as it
eventually becomes stalled near the Red River by tomorrow
morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled pattern will remain through the rest of the period,
with near daily shower and storm chances into the next week. some
severe potential will exists across the region, but particulars
will depend on the evolution of previous day`s convection so the
details will be ironed out with future forecasts.

Friday looks to be the most tame day of the forecast period, with
most locations staying dry as a dryer airmass filters in behind
the cold front this evening. Lingering showers and storms will
remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and into the terrain of
western Arkansas where the front will stall through the day
Friday. Moisture will begin to return Friday evening as the weak
boundary moves back northward. Another complex of showers and
storms forming across western Kansas Friday evening could make its
way into northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning in a decaying state,
but periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially across northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Another
disturbance is progged to advance northeastward across the
Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread
rain chances to the area through much of the day Sunday. Showers
and storms should increase Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma
and move eastward into western Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Again,
severe potential will be low given the background environment but
anytime there are storms in May there is potential for some
embedded strong to severe storms.

As we head into next week, strong zonal flow aloft develops as a
lead shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the
Central and Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will then drop southeastward and likely set up camp somewhere
across the Southern or Central Plains while a dryline extends
southward across western to central Oklahoma and into Texas.
Periodic ripples in the flow aloft are forecast to advance across
the Plains states throughout the rest of the week. This, combined
with the strong flow aloft and continued low level moisture
advection into the region will create a scenario with at least
daily isolated to scattered storm development within the warm
sector. The large instability and persistent strong deep layer
shear would support severe weather with any storms that develop.
Mid level capping will limit the coverage of storms through the
first part of the week, likely confined to areas of increased
synoptic forcing where any speed max can increase convergence
along the dryline. More widespread, organized severe potential
will be probable during this time, but those details will come in
the coming days with better agreement on timing and location of
the various vort maxes that track through the region.
Nevertheless, be prepared for another round of springtime storms
across the Plains next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma early this evening,
currently located near a Pawnee/Welch line. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue this evening ahead of boundary with a modestly
unstable air-mass in place. PWATs around 1.4 inches will produce
brief heavy rain, likely reducing visibilities below 1 mile in
the stronger storms. Front stalls late tonight into Friday morning
with lower IFR ceilings developing at most locations, including
the potential for patchy dense fog in NW AR. Ceiling heights will
slowly rise through day Friday with VFR conditions forecast by mid
afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  80  62  78 /  60  10  30  70
FSM   64  82  64  81 /  50  30  20  70
MLC   62  82  65  80 /  50  20  20  70
BVO   56  79  59  76 /  30   0  30  70
FYV   60  80  61  80 /  50  30  20  70
BYV   60  78  60  79 /  40  20  20  70
MKO   62  80  62  77 /  50  10  20  70
MIO   60  79  61  76 /  60  10  20  70
F10   61  79  63  78 /  40  10  20  70
HHW   63  81  64  79 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12