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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231601
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A front is positioned just north of the area, extending from
northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas, and remains expected
to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon. A
few echoes have developed late this morning across southern Kansas
near the front, moving eastward north of the stateline. The slight
chance of showers in far northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas looks good for now given the latest guidance but will
monitor for development further west along the boundary as it
moves through, adjusting if necessary. No update appears necessary
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Boundary will stall across southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday and
could serve as a focus for additional scattered showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon. Depending on how much instability develops,
a few of these storms could be strong.

Better chances for elevated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as boundary lift back north as a warm
front. Precipitable water values are expected to climb to around
1.5 inches by this time and the threat for locally heavy rainfall
will be likely in the stronger storms across northeast Oklahoma,
including a marginal severe threat. Additional storms could also
re-develop near warm front across northeast Oklahoma Thursday
afternoon/evening with a continued threat for a few marginally
severe storms/heavy rainfall. Any storms that track over the same
areas into Thursday could produce localized flooding.

Strong upper low will move out of the Four Corners region, become
negatively tilted, lifting into the central Plains on Friday with
a more substantial threat for severe weather. Still some uncertainty
regarding timing of main convection ahead of Pacific front, but
regardless, moderate instability will likely be in place as early
as Friday morning. This, coupled with strong deep layer shear will
likely support the potential for severe weather with all modes
possible.

Quickly on the heels of initial upper level storm system, a secondary
and potentially stronger upper low will track just north of the region
on Saturday. A very moist/unstable air-mass will remain in place
and another round of severe weather appears likely. Specific threats
will continue to be refined in the coming days as timing, including
storm mode/evolution, becomes more certain for both Friday and
Saturday.

Pacific front will likely not make it completely through the area
on Sunday and shower/thunderstorm chances will likely persist,
especially across southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas, closer to
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mid and high clouds increase today across the CWA ahead of a cold
front forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon and
be near/just south of KMLC/KFSM after 06z Wed. Rain chances along
with a slight chance for thunder become possible late afternoon
into tonight along/near the front. For now will continue with
Prob30 groups for timing across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. Within the precip will be potential for MVFR ceilings
with the greater potential for KMLC and KFSM as low level moisture
increases along/south of the front tonight. Winds through the
period become breezy out of the south to southwest ahead of the
front...and then shift out of the north to northeast behind the
boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  52  70  58 /  10  20  50  80
FSM   78  59  74  59 /  10  30  50  70
MLC   78  59  75  63 /  10  30  50  60
BVO   78  47  70  53 /  10  10  50  80
FYV   76  50  72  55 /  20  30  40  80
BYV   77  51  71  55 /  20  30  30  70
MKO   78  54  71  58 /  10  30  50  80
MIO   75  48  71  55 /  20  10  30  80
F10   78  55  70  60 /  10  30  50  70
HHW   75  60  74  63 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20