141
FXUS64 KTSA 072352
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A frontal boundary that lingers across the higher terrain of southeast
Oklahoma is forecast to surge back to the north overnight as a warm
front with an area of low pressure moving into northern Osage County in
northeast Oklahoma. By 12z Wednesday, the warm front is expected to be
near Highway 412 across E OK into NW AR with a cold front extending from
the surface low back into southwest Oklahoma. There is the potential for
isolated to scattered storms to develop late tonight to the north of the
warm front across northeast Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across
the area. A storm or two could become strong to severe during this time
with large hail the primary concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning
in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. There will continue to be
adequate instability and deep layer shear for these storms to be strong
to severe with large hail the main concern. However, any storms that can
get rooted in the boundary layer will be capable of producing damaging winds
and even a tornado. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day
in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the remainder of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Any of these that develop during the
afternoon and early evening will have the potential to be severe with all
modes of severe weather possible. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday
evening as the cold front exits the region.

Thursday through Sunday is forecast to be mostly dry with only a few showers/storms
possible across far southeast Oklahoma on Thursday as a storm system grazes the area to
the south. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to prevail. The next chance of
showers and storms arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week as
an upper level low drifts over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low level moisture increases from south to north tonight over the
CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma
during the morning hours Wednesday. Within this moisture
return...MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop and spread over
much of the CWA late tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR
ceilings are then forecast to lift back to VFR late morning into
mid afternoon from west to east. Shower/storm chances also return
across Northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning and push eastward with
the movement of the front. Additional storm development is
forecast over far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
Wednesday afternoon. Have added Tempo/Prob30 groups for timing.
Winds through the period start out light from the east to south
and become breezy out of the south to southwest ahead of the
front Wednesday morning. Winds mid afternoon Wednesday become
west to southwest ahead of the front and shift out of the
northwest behind the frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  84  54  79 /  20  50  10   0
FSM   63  87  59  83 /  10  50  40  10
MLC   64  86  59  81 /  10  20  20  10
BVO   55  82  49  77 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   59  84  54  79 /  10  60  30  10
BYV   57  83  53  77 /  10  70  30  10
MKO   60  84  54  77 /  10  40  10  10
MIO   57  81  51  75 /  10  50  10   0
F10   61  85  54  77 /  10  30  10  10
HHW   66  85  62  82 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20