Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 260231
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
931 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The cold front has moved into NW AR where a narrow line of
convection has recently developed. The front will continue
steadily eastward with any remaining precip exiting the forecast
area around midnight. Gusty WNW winds and much colder temperatures
are ongoing in the wake of the front. Persistent winds and
expanding mid cloud will somewhat limit the temp fall, however
overnight temps in the lower to mid 30s are expected for much of
the local region. Updated forecast will adjust short term precip
trends along / east of of the front and lower min temps slightly
across NE OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The mid and upper level trof axises are progged to push east of
the CWA Tuesday afternoon/evening...which will help to scatter
cloud cover over the region Tuesday afternoon. Model soundings
indicate additional mid and high level cloud cover beginning to
spread back into the CWA ahead of another shortwave forecast to
reach the Panhandles early Wednesday morning. While the low clouds
should lift/scatter these additional clouds could keep temps
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning from bottoming out. Thus...have
gone above the NBM for low temps tonight and Tuesday night. There
remains some uncertainty with the overall cloud cover extent
Tuesday night...which may create the potential for some freeze
headlines.

The next shortwave moving through the region Wednesday should
mainly just be a continuation of cool conditions...while limited
moisture should keep the passage of the disturbance dry for the
CWA. In the wake of the departing wave...clearing conditions are
forecast from west to east Wednesday night.

A warming trend gets underway Thursday with the return of southerly
winds. Southerly winds become gusty Friday and continue into the
weekend with temps climbing back into the 70s/lower 80s. These
conditions could increase fire weather concerns each afternoon
Friday through the weekend. The next chance for precipitation
looks to come during the early part of next week with another low
pressure system forecast to enter the Southern/Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Cold front currently moving through eastern Oklahoma will continue
to push eastward this evening, bringing a wind shift to westerly
for Arkansas TAF sites in the 00-02Z timeframe. A few showers will
also push through Arkansas sites over the next hour or two ahead
of the frontal surge with a rumble of thunder possible for KFSM.
OTherwise, gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue for
all sites through the night, with some low clouds bringing in MVFR
cigs to the northern half of the forecast area overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning. Winds will slowly die off through the day
tomorrow with improving ceilings by afternoon across the area.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  54  33  58 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   37  55  36  61 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   34  55  35  60 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   33  52  31  56 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   35  50  33  61 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   36  49  33  58 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   35  54  34  58 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   35  49  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
F10   34  54  34  58 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   37  58  38  61 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04


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