Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240923 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows the leading edge of a
deepening synoptic trough digging over the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest early this morning. Meanwhile, infrared imagery shows a
plethora of mid/upper-level clouds streaming over all of OK and
western AR. Latest forecast models indicate a low-amplitude
shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies and lift northeastward
over the Plains this afternoon into this evening, with a solid
layer of 50+ knot S/SW winds layered between 500-850mb. As a
result, lee cyclogenesis will occur across eastern CO, resulting
in a strong surface pressure gradient by mid-late morning this
morning. Confidence is high for sustained south to southeast winds
20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph along generally west of
Highway 75 in eastern OK through much of the late morning and
afternoon hours. There is still potential for similar wind gusts
in the higher terrain areas of northwest AR and southeast OK
through the day. Strong southerly winds are expected to shift
farther eastward this evening and overnight tonight. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for portions of northeast OK (Osage,
Pawnee, Creek, Okmulgee, Okfuskee, Tulsa, Washington, Nowata, and
Rogers Counties) beginning at 10 AM this morning.

Strong warm air advection/isentropic ascent will promote
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across north-
central/central OK mid-late morning. These showers will progress
into east-central/northeast OK late in the morning/midday,
further advancing eastward into far eastern OK and possibly
northwest AR by mid-late afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected with this activity and only light rainfall accumulations
are anticipated, with highest amounts between a tenth to quarter
of an inch.

Temperatures will stay near seasonal today under mostly cloudy to
overcast skies. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low-mid
60s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A dryline will setup across far western OK this afternoon.
Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the
dryline and progress eastward into central OK late in the
afternoon. Storms are expected to eventually enter the western
fringes of the CWA late this afternoon or early this evening.
Latest CAMs suggest the storms quickly become elevated in nature,
with an EML developing by 00z or so. Instability still seems
somewhat meager (CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg) over the area during
the late afternoon/early evening hours. Despite this, CAPE values
should be sufficient, with more than enough 0-6 km bulk shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates to support strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts, at least initially (early-mid evening). A
weakening trend should occur as storms enter the CWA.

Better and more widespread rain and scattered thunderstorm
chances will occur late this evening/overnight tonight and into
Monday as strong upper-level divergence occurs overhead on the
left-exit region of an approaching upper-level jet. This late
evening activity should stay sub-severe, though embedded strong
storms/line segments are possible. Increased deep-layered
moisture (PWATs in excess of 1”) and strong lifting will aid in
moderate to heavy rainfall through the overnight hours and into
Monday. Activity will initially develop across central/south-
central OK and shift east/northeastward through the night. The
heaviest precipitation should exit east of the area Monday
afternoon. However, shower and storm chances may continue and
develop along a southeastward-advancing cold front Monday
afternoon/evening before drying out behind the front. The highest
rainfall amounts are still expected along a southwest-to-
northeast axis, focused across southeast and east-central OK into
northwest and west-central AR. This is where 1 to 3 inches of rain
look probable, with isolated higher amounts possible.
Minor/nuisance flooding, even isolated flash flooding, will be a
possibility, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas that
receive heavy/intense rainfall rates.

Winds: Strong and gusty southerly winds will be ongoing this
evening/tonight from this afternoon. Model guidance has gusty
winds (40-50 mph gusts) spreading into far eastern OK and
northwest/west-central AR around or by sunset this evening. A
Wind Advisory has been issued for much of far eastern OK and
northwest AR beginning at 7 PM this evening through 6 AM Monday
morning. Additionally, the Wind Advisory that is already in place
for northeast OK from the previous forecast package, was also
extended until 6 AM Monday morning. Timing and locations of the
advisory may need to be adjusted in later forecast packages.

As mentioned above, a cold front is forecast to push through the
CWA west-to-east Monday evening. Behind the front, temperatures
are anticipated to fall into the 30s, perhaps even upper 20s near
the KS/OK border by sunrise Tuesday. Unseasonably cool temperature
will persist through the day Tuesday, with highs generally in the
low- mid 50s. Even cold temperatures will develop Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as surface high pressure begins to settle
into the region. Freeze headlines will be needed both nights.

A warming trend will occur beginning on Wednesday and continue
through the start of next weekend. A fast moving shortwave trough,
with very limited moisture, moves over the Plains during the
daytime on Wednesday. Precipitation looks unlikely at this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. High cloud cigs will
gradually lower to mid cloud thru Sunday, but should still remain
VFR. Southeast winds will increase and become gusty ahead of next
storm system. The initial round of precip is expected during the
afternoon hours as a band of showers moves from west to east
across the region. Storm coverage with activity coming off the
dryline aft 00Z is uncertain, and doesn`t warrant a tempo mention
at this point. Will instead use prob30s to cover potential.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  55  69  31 /  70  80  20   0
FSM   67  56  65  37 /  30 100  80  10
MLC   65  55  70  34 /  40  90  40   0
BVO   62  51  68  28 /  80  80  10   0
FYV   64  51  65  30 /  20  90  80  10
BYV   62  51  61  33 /  10  90  90  10
MKO   64  54  67  32 /  50  80  40   0
MIO   62  53  66  30 /  50  80  40  10
F10   64  54  68  33 /  60  80  20   0
HHW   65  53  67  36 /  30 100  60   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ057-058-062-063-067>076.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>066.

AR...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30


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