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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Early this morning a 850-mb frontal boundary was located from
South Central Oklahoma into Southeast Oklahoma and West Central
Arkansas...along a line from Pittsburg co to Franklin co... and
extended into Central Arkansas. Along this boundary frontogenetic
forcing was aiding in the development of rain showers. Along the
western portion of this boundary...a vort max was lifting east
northeast into South Central Oklahoma...with scattered
thunderstorms approaching Southeast Oklahoma.

Through this afternoon...the 850-mb frontal boundary is expected
to remain across a portion of Southeast Oklahoma with a surface
boundary stretched west to east along/near Interstate 40. In
response...rain showers with chances for thunderstorms will
continue to spread across Southeast Oklahoma into West Central
Arkansas into this afternoon with the movement of the vort max.
The northern extent of the rain showers should be mainly
along/near the I-40 surface boundary. The greater thunderstorm
potential is expected along/south of the 850-mb boundary across
Southeast Oklahoma. The majority of the instability should remain
south of the Red River...and severe weather is not anticipated
today. Precipitable water values in excess of one inch south of
the elevated boundary could allow for locally heavy rainfall over
parts of far Southeast Oklahoma.

Cloud cover and precipitation should keep temps south of I-40 in
the 50s/lower 60s...with low/mid 60s forecast north of I-40 today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The surface boundary is progged to get a push southward tonight
with the approach of surface high pressure sinking southward
through the Central Plains. At the same time...a weak shortwave is
forecast to push east southeast along the Red River and exit the
region late tonight/early Sunday morning. Thus...rain showers will
taper off from northwest to southeast across Southeast Oklahoma
tonight and exit with the departing shortwave and surface
boundary. In the wake of the shortwave...clearing skies and
northerly winds will filter through the CWA Sunday with temps in
the 60s.

Surface high pressure center exits Monday morning allowing for
the return of southerly low level flow and warmer temperatures to
the CWA. Low level moisture should also begin to return to the
region within the return flow ahead of a cold front forecast to
move into CWA Tuesday. Increasing warm advection along with a
30-45KT low level jet interacting with the moisture return could
create a few showers/slight chance thunderstorms to develop late
Monday night/Tuesday across parts of Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas ahead of the front.

Some form of this boundary looks to remain in the region Tuesday
into Wednesday while another vort max/disturbance moves eastward
through the region. This will continue shower/thunderstorm
chances with the greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday.

For the second half of the week...unsettled weather is forecast to
continue as a dryline sets up over the far western portion of
Oklahoma with another low pressure system pushing into the Plain.
Latest model solutions continue to differ with the details/timing
of precip Thursday into the weekend. At this time though...severe
weather potentials look increase late week as warm and gust
southerly winds transport moisture into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Areas of light to moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms
will continue spreading across portions of southeast Oklahoma into
west-central Arkansas this morning in association with upper
disturbance. Brief MVFR conditions will be likely with any
thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected
through the forecast period with BKN/OVC mid and high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  43  66  41 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   63  46  67  42 /  30  20   0   0
MLC   61  45  66  40 /  80  50   0   0
BVO   64  39  65  37 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   65  40  66  36 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   63  41  63  37 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   64  44  66  40 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   62  39  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
F10   63  44  65  40 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   59  47  65  41 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...12