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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201701
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1201 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Widespread light to moderate rainfall continues south of I-40, but
radar and model trends suggest a decreasing trend in coverage
through the early afternoon. Another wave of activity moving up
from Texas may reinvigorate showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon for the southern third of the forecast area. Scaled Pops
back a bit from previous forecasts, but the overall message
remains the same.

Otherwise, a cool airmass is in place across the area with
temperatures in the 50s. Lowered temperatures a bit in areas where
persistent clouds and rain have been occurring. Expect areas
north of I-40 to top out in the low 60s, with mid 50s to low 60s
south of there. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The surface boundary is progged to get a push southward tonight
with the approach of surface high pressure sinking southward
through the Central Plains. At the same time...a weak shortwave is
forecast to push east southeast along the Red River and exit the
region late tonight/early Sunday morning. Thus...rain showers will
taper off from northwest to southeast across Southeast Oklahoma
tonight and exit with the departing shortwave and surface
boundary. In the wake of the shortwave...clearing skies and
northerly winds will filter through the CWA Sunday with temps in
the 60s.

Surface high pressure center exits Monday morning allowing for
the return of southerly low level flow and warmer temperatures to
the CWA. Low level moisture should also begin to return to the
region within the return flow ahead of a cold front forecast to
move into CWA Tuesday. Increasing warm advection along with a
30-45KT low level jet interacting with the moisture return could
create a few showers/slight chance thunderstorms to develop late
Monday night/Tuesday across parts of Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas ahead of the front.

Some form of this boundary looks to remain in the region Tuesday
into Wednesday while another vort max/disturbance moves eastward
through the region. This will continue shower/thunderstorm
chances with the greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday.

For the second half of the week...unsettled weather is forecast to
continue as a dryline sets up over the far western portion of
Oklahoma with another low pressure system pushing into the Plain.
Latest model solutions continue to differ with the details/timing
of precip Thursday into the weekend. At this time though...severe
weather potentials look increase late week as warm and gust
southerly winds transport moisture into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For terminals near and north of I-40, aviation weather concerns
should be mostly minimal. For these areas scattered mid to high
level clouds will continue at times but should remain VFR. A
scattered shower or two could develop late this evening or
overnight but confidence is low (10-15% chance). Breezy northeast
winds will subside by late afternoon, with gusts dropping from
15-25 kts down to 10-15 kts.

For areas to the south such as KMLC, periodic rain showers may
occur throughout the forecast period. The most likely chance of
showers will be late this afternoon into the early overnight
hours. CIGS may come down briefly during any showers, but should
remain near or above 3 kft. An isolated thunderstorm could occur
(10% chance) but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  66  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  67  42  73 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   45  66  40  73 /  50   0   0   0
BVO   39  65  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  66  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   41  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  66  40  72 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   39  64  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  65  40  71 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   47  65  41  71 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06