Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231943
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A chilly afternoon is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest and west central Arkansas, despite only some high
cloudiness remaining after the morning low clouds eroded. With
high pressure centered in the Upper Midwest extending southward
into the region, dry easterly surface winds persist in most
locations early this afternoon, although a shift to more southerly
winds is expected through the evening and overnight as an upper
level storm system approaches and low pressure organizes in the
lee of the Rockies. With the southerly wind shift and a
strengthening low level jet tonight, expect some increase in low
level moisture and an increase in cloudiness. This should lead to
low temperatures that are noticeably warmer than those seen last
night. The stronger warm, moist advection should remain just west
of the forecast area through daybreak so will keep things dry
precipitation-wise tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Showers should be ongoing just west of the area Sunday morning,
with light rain shifting eastward into mainly eastern Oklahoma
through the day. Rainfall amounts during the day should be light
given the delayed deep layer moisture return. Windy conditions
are expected to develop mid to late morning and continue into the
evening hours. A Wind Advisory will be posted for parts of
northeast and east central Oklahoma for frequent gusts in the 40
to 45 mph range. There is some potential for similar gusts in the
higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas and possibly, southeast
Oklahoma but will hold off on an advisory for now given lower
confidence and likely, a later onset.

During the late afternoon and evening, thunderstorms may develop
well to our west along the dryline in western Oklahoma that could
make a run at the western fringes of the area. However, overall
instability remains likely to be limited and these thunderstorms
should be weakening upon their approach. A better chance for more
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms should develop
after midnight Sunday night, continuing into Monday, focused
across southeast and east central Oklahoma into northwest and west
central Arkansas nearer the approaching upper level jet max. This
should also feature the greater potential for locally heavy
rainfall given the marked increase in deep layer moisture during
this time. Precipitation should shift east of the area by Monday
evening, with areas west of the rain likely to see afternoon
temperatures warmer than those tomorrow due to a westerly turn in
the low level winds and lower cloud cover. It`s possible that the
degree of warming in this forecast is underdone in some areas, but
with the approach of the associated cold front, was hesitant to go
too warm at this time.

The cold front will sweep through the area Monday night, with
temperatures likely to fall into the 30s and in some areas, even
the 20s by daybreak Tuesday. Even colder conditions will occur on
Tuesday night, as winds drop off allowing for better radiational
cooling potential. Since we`re now in our spring growing season,
Freeze Headlines will certainly be needed both nights.

A warmup can be expected late in the week and into the next
weekend. A fast moving wave Wednesday may bring a few showers to
parts of eastern Oklahoma during the day, but it does not look to
be a wash out by any means.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
increasing high and mid clouds, especially by Sunday morning. Wind
will initially be from the northeast-east at 10 knots or less,
however they will increase overnight as they become more
southeasterly. By Sunday morning, gusts in the 25 to 35 knot
range will become common, especially in NE OK and over the terrain
of NW AR. Showers will develop late in the period, but main
impacts likely after 18z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  65  55  68 /   0  50  60  20
FSM   46  66  55  66 /   0  20  90  70
MLC   48  66  55  69 /   0  30  80  30
BVO   44  64  51  66 /   0  70  60  10
FYV   41  65  51  66 /   0  20  90  70
BYV   42  62  51  62 /   0  20  80  80
MKO   47  64  54  68 /   0  30  60  30
MIO   46  63  53  67 /   0  40  50  40
F10   49  63  54  67 /   0  40  60  20
HHW   47  65  54  66 /   0  20  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>066.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14


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