157
FXUS64 KTSA 301733
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Moisture return is well underway across the region ahead of a
dryline that stretches from NW OK down into the TX Panhandle, with
dewpoints well into the 60s. A shortwave trough is beginning to
shift east into the central Plains. Surface low pressure over NW
KS will shift northeast with time and drag a front south and east
this afternoon into the evening across southern KS. Both the front
and the dryline will be a focus for strong to severe storm
activity this afternoon and evening. There are differences in the
CAM data regarding timing and storm coverage on the dryline, but
most data has storms on the front over southern KS. Given the
location of the forcing boundaries, areas to the north and west of
Tulsa will have the best chance for storms. Some locally heavy
rainfall could occur near the KS border where the front becomes
more west-east oriented and would support training storms. Outflow
from the storms on the front could force more storms down into NE
OK tonight.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A warm and more humid day is on tap today as breezy southerly
winds return, with afternoon high temperatures warming well into
the 80s. There will be a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in
the far northwest part of the forecast area towards evening as a
weak frontal boundary approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Tonight will mark the start of an extended period of unsettled
weather. The aforementioned frontal boundary will sag south to
near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and will be the focus for shower
and thunderstorm activity overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible as storms train over the same areas, but with
uncertainty on just which side of the border the heaviest rainfall
will set up, will not issue a flood watch at this time.

The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area Wednesday
morning with convection waning at that time. Convection will
likely fire to the west Wednesday afternoon along a dry line, with
that convection potentially affecting our area overnight Wednesday
night. At this point, it appears the southern part of the forecast
area may see the greatest chance for rainfall at that time.

Convective coverage will likely be greatest Thursday into
Thursday night as a cold front moves into and through the area.
Nevertheless, the categorical pops shown by the NBM seem
excessive for a day 3 convective event, especially considering
potential effects from prior rounds of convection. Thus, have
backed off some from those pops Thursday and Thursday evening.

The cold front looks to stall near the Red River early Friday and
will then meander around in our vicinity through the weekend,
which will continue the chances of showers and storms. A stronger
storm system may affect the area early next week, continuing
shower and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the bulk of the period at all
TAFs. The best chance of storms will be at the NE OK sites
tonight, closer to the focusing boundaries. There is some chance
that an outflow boundary could push far enough south to bring
storms to KMLC by early Wednesday. If storms impact an airport, a
brief period of MVFR is possible. Storm activity should remain
west of the NW AR TAF sites thru the period.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  84  67  78 /  50  40  40  70
FSM   63  87  67  79 /  20  20  30  80
MLC   65  84  67  78 /  20  30  50  90
BVO   60  83  65  78 /  70  40  50  90
FYV   61  83  64  78 /  20  20  30  70
BYV   61  84  66  77 /  20  20  20  70
MKO   63  84  66  76 /  40  30  40  80
MIO   61  83  66  77 /  60  30  40  80
F10   64  83  66  77 /  30  30  50  90
HHW   64  83  65  75 /  10  30  50  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30