Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280525
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Isolated showers continue to weaken across far southeast Oklahoma
this evening. Update will be sent to remove PoPs shortly.
Otherwise, forecast on track with no other significant changes.
Clouds will continue to shift east and with clearing skies,
temperatures will again fall below freezing across portions of
northeast Oklahoma.
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.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Weak shortwave was continuing to move eastward across the region
this afternoon...noted by the area of mid and high clouds across
Oklahoma and Northern Texas. Some weak radar echoes were also
common underneath the mid/upper level low. However...drier air
between the surface and the 7-10kft cloud bases were limiting the
amount of light rain reaching the surface as it moves into Eastern
Oklahoma. Surface RH across the CWA ranged from the mid 20s to
upper 40 percent.
Through sunset there remains a slight chance for light rain in the
western portion of the CWA...though it will have to work through
the dry layer to reach the surface. This evening and overnight the
shortwave is expected to move through the CWA and exit off to the
east Southeast by early Thursday morning. In the wake of the
departing wave...cloud cover should scatter out from west to east
overnight. With clearing skies and light winds again
tonight...temps look to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s from
north to south. By early Thursday morning...surface winds will be
trying to return out of the south along with increasing warm
advection which should help limit a widespread freeze tonight. The
greater potential for freezing temps looks to be north of
Interstate 44 and will add Pawnee county to Ottawa county into
another Freeze Warning for tonight from 3AM to 9AM Thursday.
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.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The return of southerly low level flow and mostly clear skies will
aid in a quick warm up with high temperatures climbing back into
the 60s to around 70 degrees across the CWA Thursday. The
southerly winds begin to increase Thursday night and become gusty
Friday with gusts up near 40 mph possible as an area of low
pressure deepens lee of the Rocky Mountains and an area of high
pressure sets up over the Gulf Coast States. These winds combined
with warmer temps and min RH values forecast to be less than 40
percent will elevate fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. The
area of greater concern looks to be across Northeast Oklahoma
where the stronger winds and lower RH should be co-located.
Southerly winds weaken some Saturday in response to a surface
boundary progged to sag southward into Northeast Oklahoma. This
boundary looks to potentially reach KBVO during the day and then
lift back northward Saturday evening. Along this
boundary...pooling moisture and warmer temps are forecast Saturday
afternoon with high temps in the lower 80s possible. Mid 70s to
around 80 deg are forecast across the rest of the CWA. This
boundary is forecast to remain across Kansas Sunday which will
help increase winds again and continue the warm temperatures
across the CWA.
Sunday night into Monday...an area of low pressure is progged to
enter into the Plains and push the cold front back through the CWA
Monday night/Tuesday. With the warm conditions ahead of this
system and southerly winds transporting moisture into the
region...instability interacting with the front will create the
potential for thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Severe potentials
could be possible with this activity Monday and Monday night. At
this time the cold front is forecast to move through the CWA
Monday night and exit Tuesday morning....though this will continue
to be updated with latest data. Behind the front...colder
conditions are forecast to return for the middle part of next
week.
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.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Still monitoring for potential light fog overnight
tonight (early Thursday morning), mostly impacting the OK
terminals. Confidence is still too low to mention in TAFs at this
time. Light and variable winds will continue overnight tonight and
through the morning hours before southwesterly winds increase by
midday Thursday. Occasional gusts 15-20 knots will be possible at
BVO, TUL, and RVS in the afternoon.
Mejia-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TUL 70 53 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 70 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 70 52 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 70 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 66 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 65 46 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 69 50 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 66 48 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
F10 69 52 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 68 50 75 56 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --
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.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>059.
AR...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67