Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000 FXUS64 KTSA 280525 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Isolated showers continue to weaken across far southeast Oklahoma this evening. Update will be sent to remove PoPs shortly. Otherwise, forecast on track with no other significant changes. Clouds will continue to shift east and with clearing skies, temperatures will again fall below freezing across portions of northeast Oklahoma. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Weak shortwave was continuing to move eastward across the region this afternoon...noted by the area of mid and high clouds across Oklahoma and Northern Texas. Some weak radar echoes were also common underneath the mid/upper level low. However...drier air between the surface and the 7-10kft cloud bases were limiting the amount of light rain reaching the surface as it moves into Eastern Oklahoma. Surface RH across the CWA ranged from the mid 20s to upper 40 percent. Through sunset there remains a slight chance for light rain in the western portion of the CWA...though it will have to work through the dry layer to reach the surface. This evening and overnight the shortwave is expected to move through the CWA and exit off to the east Southeast by early Thursday morning. In the wake of the departing wave...cloud cover should scatter out from west to east overnight. With clearing skies and light winds again tonight...temps look to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s from north to south. By early Thursday morning...surface winds will be trying to return out of the south along with increasing warm advection which should help limit a widespread freeze tonight. The greater potential for freezing temps looks to be north of Interstate 44 and will add Pawnee county to Ottawa county into another Freeze Warning for tonight from 3AM to 9AM Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 The return of southerly low level flow and mostly clear skies will aid in a quick warm up with high temperatures climbing back into the 60s to around 70 degrees across the CWA Thursday. The southerly winds begin to increase Thursday night and become gusty Friday with gusts up near 40 mph possible as an area of low pressure deepens lee of the Rocky Mountains and an area of high pressure sets up over the Gulf Coast States. These winds combined with warmer temps and min RH values forecast to be less than 40 percent will elevate fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. The area of greater concern looks to be across Northeast Oklahoma where the stronger winds and lower RH should be co-located. Southerly winds weaken some Saturday in response to a surface boundary progged to sag southward into Northeast Oklahoma. This boundary looks to potentially reach KBVO during the day and then lift back northward Saturday evening. Along this boundary...pooling moisture and warmer temps are forecast Saturday afternoon with high temps in the lower 80s possible. Mid 70s to around 80 deg are forecast across the rest of the CWA. This boundary is forecast to remain across Kansas Sunday which will help increase winds again and continue the warm temperatures across the CWA. Sunday night into Monday...an area of low pressure is progged to enter into the Plains and push the cold front back through the CWA Monday night/Tuesday. With the warm conditions ahead of this system and southerly winds transporting moisture into the region...instability interacting with the front will create the potential for thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Severe potentials could be possible with this activity Monday and Monday night. At this time the cold front is forecast to move through the CWA Monday night and exit Tuesday morning....though this will continue to be updated with latest data. Behind the front...colder conditions are forecast to return for the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Still monitoring for potential light fog overnight tonight (early Thursday morning), mostly impacting the OK terminals. Confidence is still too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Light and variable winds will continue overnight tonight and through the morning hours before southwesterly winds increase by midday Thursday. Occasional gusts 15-20 knots will be possible at BVO, TUL, and RVS in the afternoon. Mejia
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TUL 70 53 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 70 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 70 52 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 70 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 66 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 65 46 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 69 50 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 66 48 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 69 52 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 68 50 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>059. AR...None.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...67

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