390
FXUS64 KTSA 021736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MCV left over from last night`s convection was spinning over NE OK
this morning. Another MCV was spinning over far SE OK and NE TX.
Some gusty winds continue on the north side of the MCV for a while
longer before fading. Thunder coverage has faded early this
morning due to weak instability, but as the MCVs lift northeast
and we begin to destabilize, thunder coverage may gradually
increase to the east of these systems over W AR and far E OK. By
this afternoon, an approaching front from the NW will bring
increased shower and storm coverage to the north and west of
Tulsa, with this activity spreading east and south into the
evening. The environment ahead of the front in our area will not
be overly favorable for severe storm development, but some
isolated pulse severe is possible.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MCS is beginning to enter eastern Oklahoma early this morning, and
will continue to advance east during the morning hours with a
gradual weakening trend. Gusty winds along the northern edge of
the complex have necessitated a wind advisory for Osage and Pawnee
counties until 7 am. The expectation is that this early day
complex will largely inhibit convective redevelopment through
this afternoon in much of the area. The exception may be the far
northwest part of the forecast area, so afternoon pops will be
highest in this area. This area will also see the greatest chance
for a marginally severe storm late this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Convective chances may increase this evening across much of the
area as a cold front moves through, but considerable uncertainty
exists regarding convective coverage and intensity. Friday will
see a relative minimum in rain chances, but shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase again by late Friday night
through the weekend as another frontal boundary moves across the
area.

A potent upper level storm system will move into the central or
northern Plains early next week continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances, but the overall convective potential remains
unclear at this point as the system may lift out too far to the
north to break a capping inversion that will likely develop over
our area Monday. With the upper system lifting out so far to the
north, the surface boundary may also hang up to our west, and with
continued southwest flow next week, at least low convective
chances may linger into at least midweek. For now have stuck with
the NBM pops for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions in the near term with spotty showers in association
with MCV. Inserted VCTS mention at KBVO and the NW AR sites for
the afternoon ahead of MCV and front. Inserted VCTS mention at
the E OK sites this evening and tonight with front. MVFR cigs will
develop and prevail tonight into Friday at most sites. Some chance
for periodic IFR conditions as well.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  61  80  61 /  60  50  10  40
FSM   79  64  82  63 /  60  50  30  20
MLC   78  62  81  62 /  40  50  20  30
BVO   77  57  79  57 /  60  50  10  40
FYV   78  59  78  58 /  70  50  20  20
BYV   80  59  78  58 /  70  50  20  20
MKO   77  61  80  61 /  40  50  20  30
MIO   76  59  78  60 /  50  50  10  30
F10   77  61  79  61 /  50  50  20  30
HHW   75  63  81  63 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30