Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 171038
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
A warm front will lift north across the area today. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm well into the 80s, with parts of northeast
Oklahoma nearing 90 degrees this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border this evening, but the better chances will
remain to the north. If a storm does develop, it may become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Otherwise it will be a
breezy and mild night, with overnight lows mainly in the 65-70
degree range.
A strong cold front will sweep southeast across the area Thursday.
Warm and humid conditions will continue ahead of the front, with
gusty north winds and falling afternoon temperatures in its wake
across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, with
some of the storms possibly becoming severe. Overall, have
lowered the NBM pops in northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon
where they seem much too high given a relatively early frontal
passage.
Showers and storms will exit the area later Thursday evening, with
much cooler temperatures expected Friday through the weekend. An
upper wave is expected to result in showers and a few
thunderstorms from late Friday through early Sunday, with
southern parts of the forecast area being the most favored
locations for rainfall.
After a dry start to next week Monday, unsettled weather looks to
return towards the middle of the week. Model discrepancies are
large by that time, so stuck close to the NBM solution for now
beyond Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Patchy fog will reduce visibility for a few hours this morning
at KMLC and KFSM with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering until `
late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for much
of the remainder of the period with the potential for MVFR
ceilings building back into the region late in the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 70 82 48 / 0 10 30 10
FSM 88 66 86 55 / 0 10 50 40
MLC 87 69 84 52 / 0 10 40 30
BVO 87 66 79 45 / 10 20 40 0
FYV 85 65 84 48 / 0 0 40 30
BYV 86 65 85 47 / 0 0 50 30
MKO 86 67 85 49 / 0 0 50 20
MIO 85 68 81 45 / 0 20 50 10
F10 87 68 85 49 / 0 0 40 20
HHW 82 67 83 55 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10