000
FXUS64 KTSA 230548
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

No major changes made to going forecast this evening. Overnight
lows were tweaked upward a bit based on latest guidance and
expectation of sfc winds staying up all night. If the wind drops
off enough in the sheltered areas, temps could drop into the 40s.
Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with passing high
cloud.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

South winds will continue tonight, resulting in milder overnight
lows. Given the dry low level airmass, any areas that shelter
from winds will again be rather chilly, though not so much as
this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Further warming anticipated Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. The boundary is expected to be near I-44 corridor just
before 00z, with isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms expected along the front late Tuesday afternoon,
mainly NW AR and far NE OK. Some expansion in coverage is
depicted by most guidance Tuesday night as the front slowly moves
south, before eventually stalling near the Red River early Wed
morning.

Frontal zone should remain fairly active Wed/Thu as it eventually
lifts north as a warm front in response to flow becoming more
southwesterly with time. For the most part convection should
remain elevated during this period, but a few strong or
marginally severe storms possible by Wed night into Thursday as
low level moisture profiles improve. The front will result in
cooler temps for a couple of days, and if precip remains
widespread enough and arrives early, Wed high temps could end up
cooler than forecast.

Moving toward the later part of the week into the weekend, the
pattern remains very active while likely becoming more conducive
to severe weather, just in time for the most climatologically
favored time of year. A strong initial upper low is forecast to
eject into the plains by Friday with continued expansion of the
warm sector from later Thursday into Friday. This looks to be
followed rather quickly by another strong system this weekend.
While specific timing of features remains in question, there is at
least some degree of potential for a multi-day severe weather
threat in the plains, with Friday and Saturday currently the
most favored days for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Mostly clear to scattered high clouds along with southerly winds
will remain common overnight tonight across most of the CWA. The
exception to this being KFSM...where more easterly winds will
continue. During the day Tuesday...mid and high clouds will
increase over the CWA ahead of a cold front forecast to reach KBVO
mid/late afternoon and KMLC/KFSM at the end/just outside of this
TAF period. A chance of showers/storms develop with the front
Tuesday evening mainly south of Interstate 44 and will carry Prob
30 groups for all locations except Northeast Oklahoma TAF sites.
Within the potential precip and increasing moisture ahead of the
front...MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop. The greater
potential for this is across Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas Tuesday evening. Winds Tuesday continue to be breezy out
of the south becoming southwest ahead of the front and then shift
out of the north to northeast behind the boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  69  57  74 /  20  50  80  70
FSM   59  72  59  74 /  30  40  60  60
MLC   59  72  62  78 /  30  50  50  50
BVO   49  68  53  73 /  10  40  80  80
FYV   52  70  55  71 /  30  40  70  60
BYV   51  69  55  68 /  20  20  70  60
MKO   57  69  58  73 /  30  50  70  60
MIO   48  69  55  71 /  10  30  80  80
F10   57  69  60  76 /  30  60  60  60
HHW   60  75  62  77 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20