000
FXUS64 KTSA 140128
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
828 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 826 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Clear conditions will prevail through the remainder of the
evening, with some high clouds filtering into the area after
midnight. Breezy conditions will persist, with gusts of 15-25 mph
throughout the night. Low temperatures will be mild, generally in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Mid-level ridging will slide over the Plains on Sunday ahead of
the next storm system. With a warm start and mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies, temps may top out around 90 from near Tulsa
westward. The pressure gradient will relax a bit, so winds will
not be near as strong as they are today (near advisory level in
spots).

The strong upper storm system to affect the region Monday night
into Tuesday currently lies off the CA coast. The trend has been
for a slower overall eastward progression as several smaller scale
pieces of energy rotate around the circulation. By Monday
afternoon, the dryline may set up even farther west into the
eastern TX Panhandle. Capping will likely keep storms from forming
until almost 00Z, so any impact from these storms will be well
after dark for eastern OK. With the forecast area being well
displaced from storm initiation and storm timing during the more
unfavorable time of day (waning instability), chances for higher-
end (thus higher-impact) severe are low. However, like was
mentioned yesterday, that doesn`t mean we`re not expecting severe
weather. There`s a pretty good chance that some warnings will be
issued given the strong low and deep layer shear in place. The
latest EC 3-hr QPF and UKMET QPF show increasing storm coverage
after 06Z as the Pacific front overtakes the dryline, though the
QPF signal does not suggest that a larger scale QLCS will develop.
The severe threat will linger into Tuesday morning as storm
potential shifts east of our western AR counties by midday. As
skies clear and deep mixing ensues in the wake of the Pacific
front Tuesday afternoon, winds will become quite gusty and likely
near advisory levels. This will also raise fire weather concerns
mainly to the north and west of Tulsa.

After a quiet and cooler Tuesday night thru Wednesday night,
another cold front is expected to slide thru the region Thursday
as a large upper low over south-central Canada and the northern
Plains sinks south. This will bring another round of showers and
storms and a limited severe risk. Below average temps are then
expected to close out next week, with lows possibly dipping down
into the 30s by next Friday and Saturday night in the usual cool
valley spots.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Gusty south winds will continue overnight with LLWS developing
around 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with scattered
high clouds into Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain gusty in a
few locations through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  88  66  82 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   59  85  63  83 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   63  84  65  80 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   59  89  61  82 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   58  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   61  83  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   61  85  65  82 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20
F10   62  87  65  81 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   59  80  63  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12