Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 132308
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
608 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
South winds and increasing dewpoints will lead to a rather mild
night tonight across the region, under mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s will be common.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Mid-level ridging will slide over the Plains on Sunday ahead of
the next storm system. With a warm start and mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies, temps may top out around 90 from near Tulsa
westward. The pressure gradient will relax a bit, so winds will
not be near as strong as they are today (near advisory level in
spots).
The strong upper storm system to affect the region Monday night
into Tuesday currently lies off the CA coast. The trend has been
for a slower overall eastward progression as several smaller scale
pieces of energy rotate around the circulation. By Monday
afternoon, the dryline may set up even farther west into the
eastern TX Panhandle. Capping will likely keep storms from forming
until almost 00Z, so any impact from these storms will be well
after dark for eastern OK. With the forecast area being well
displaced from storm initiation and storm timing during the more
unfavorable time of day (waning instability), chances for higher-
end (thus higher-impact) severe are low. However, like was
mentioned yesterday, that doesn`t mean we`re not expecting severe
weather. There`s a pretty good chance that some warnings will be
issued given the strong low and deep layer shear in place. The
latest EC 3-hr QPF and UKMET QPF show increasing storm coverage
after 06Z as the Pacific front overtakes the dryline, though the
QPF signal does not suggest that a larger scale QLCS will develop.
The severe threat will linger into Tuesday morning as storm
potential shifts east of our western AR counties by midday. As
skies clear and deep mixing ensues in the wake of the Pacific
front Tuesday afternoon, winds will become quite gusty and likely
near advisory levels. This will also raise fire weather concerns
mainly to the north and west of Tulsa.
After a quiet and cooler Tuesday night thru Wednesday night,
another cold front is expected to slide thru the region Thursday
as a large upper low over south-central Canada and the northern
Plains sinks south. This will bring another round of showers and
storms and a limited severe risk. Below average temps are then
expected to close out next week, with lows possibly dipping down
into the 30s by next Friday and Saturday night in the usual cool
valley spots.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024
Gusty south winds will continue overnight with LLWS developing
around 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with scattered
high clouds into Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain gusty in a
few locations through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 88 66 82 / 0 0 0 20
FSM 59 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 63 84 65 80 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 59 89 61 82 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 58 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 61 85 65 82 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 62 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 20
F10 62 87 65 81 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 59 80 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12