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414
FXUS65 KTWC 052104
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mostly sunny, warm and windy through the early evening
hours tonight. Areas of blowing dust will also be possible. Cooler
with less wind on Monday, then temperatures warm up the remainder of
the week into next weekend with continued afternoon breezes.
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.DISCUSSION...
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A storm system centered over the western Great
Basin will move eastward into the plains on Monday. This system has
resulted in breezy to windy conditions across southeast Arizona
today, with southwest winds of 15-30 mph and gusts between 35-45
mph. These winds will continue into the early evening hours tonight
before diminishing. A Red Flag Warning continues in effect for all
of southeast through 7 pm MST this evening. Although there have been
no reports of blowing dust as of yet, it will be a concern with the
wind speeds and dry soils into the early evening hours, especially
in prone areas along I-10 between Willcox and San Simon and from Red
Rock northward. High temperatures today will top out 2-4 degrees
above normal, or in the lower 80s to around 90 degrees in the lower
elevation locations.

On the back side of the system Monday, high temperatures will lower
5-7 degrees (versus highs today) and top out 2-4 degrees below
normal. Still breezy, but below fire weather thresholds. Expect west
winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph across portions of
Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties and lower wind speeds further
west.

Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures warm back up to 1-3 degrees
above normal. Wind speeds pick back up during the afternoon and
early evening hours, especially to the east of Tucson. Cochise,
Graham and Greenlee counties will be near critical fire weather
thresholds.

Thursday, highs continue to be 1-3 degrees above normal, with less
wind and typical May afternoon/early evening breezy conditions due
to strong surface heating.

Friday into next weekend, highs warm to 4-7 degrees above normal
with typical afternoon breeziness.
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.AVIATION...
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Valid through 07/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 06/00Z. SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft
AGL between 06/00Z and 06/18Z. SWLY SFC at 17-26 kts and gusts up to
40 kts thru 06/03Z. Decreasing SFC wind aft 06/03Z, with SFC wind
less than 12 kts and variable in direction between 06/06Z and
06/18Z. WLY/NWLY SFC wind at 8-16 kts and gusts to around 25 kts
from 06/18Z thru the end of the forecast period, with the strongest
SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG, KALK and KSAD.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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A dry weather system moving to our north today will
result in windy southwest winds of 15-30 mph and gusts between 35-45
mph through the early evening hours tonight. High temperatures will
briefly cool to below normal levels on Monday behind this system.
Temperatures then remain near to slightly above normal through
Thursday before warming up to 4-7 degrees above normal by next
weekend. Breezy afternoon and early evening winds will persist much
of this week, especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in
the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values
generally in the teens for the mountains.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of southeast Arizona
until 7 pm MST this evening. The combination of strong and gusty
southwest winds, low relative humidity levels and a high fire danger
rating will result in critical fire weather conditions through the
early evening hours tonight.
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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Red Flag Warning until 7 pm MST this evening for AZZ150>154.
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&&

$$

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