Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
175 FXUS65 KTWC 302134 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 234 PM MST Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm and dry this week with breezy afternoons most days. && .DISCUSSION...Abundant sunshine this afternoon with satellite imagery showing a clear sky across the desert SW. Afternoon temperatures were running 3 to 6 degrees warmer than Monday. Dry W-SW flow aloft for the remainder of the work week into Saturday with highs similar to today and afternoon breezes. Wednesday looks to the the winder day with trof passing by to our north. Possible changes in the Sunday/Monday time period associated with a stronger upper level trof moving through the wrn CONUS. 12z GEFS is deeper than 12z EPS/GEPS. I didn`t deviate from the recommended initialization which shows only a slight drop in temperatures by Monday. But there is a large spread in the high temperatures for Sunday and Monday. For example, based on in-house low-level thickness study, 12z GFS has a high of 79 degrees for Tucson Monday while 12z ECMWF has high of 89 degrees. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. SKC conditions through the valid period. SFC winds SWLY 10-20 kts thru 04Z becoming light and variable thereafter. Winds increase and become SWLY at 10-20 kts after 17Z with gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-8 degrees above normal into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less most of this week, with afternoon gustiness resulting from surface heating. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday, with southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Min RH values in the valleys will generally be in the single digits and 12-20 percent in the mountains. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson