Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 202125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 PM MST Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system moving north of the area
will bring gusty winds into this evening. Cooler temperatures will
also occur today with a few showers possible across the White
Mountains late this afternoon and evening. A strong warming trend
will then prevail Saturday into Monday with above normal
temperatures continuing into the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Abundant sunshine across southeast Arizona with
temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Satellite imagery showed a strong upper level low over southwest
Colorado with a fairly strong vort max on back side of system
moving across northeast Arizona. Cloud cover has been increasing
across the White mountains with isolated rain and snow showers
across Navajo and Apache counties. A few light rain/snow(flurries)
showers this evening across far northern Greenlee county. With a
cooler air mass in place, overnight lows will get quite chilly for
mid-April with localized spots in our colder valleys east and
south of Tucson possibly seeing an hour or two of freezing

Temperatures rebound quickly tomorrow under building high pressure
aloft. Will see an increase in mainly high level cloud cover late
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning in advance of an
approaching weak upper level low, currently 600 miles west of the
Baja Spur. Models indicate an increase in mid-level moisture on
Sunday as PW values rise to around a half an inch across Santa
Cruz and southern Cochise counties. Can`t rule out a sprinkle or
two put believe that there will be a lot of virga with this

Warm and dry next week with highs running around 10 degrees
above normal. Will need to keep an eye on moisture pushing west
mid week across New Mexico associated with a pair of back door
cold fronts. Could lead to isolated high based storms along AZ/NM
border Wed thru Fri.


.AVIATION...Valid through 21/23Z.
SCT clouds at 6k-10k ft AGL northeast of KSAD this evening,
otherwise mostly clear skies. SFC wind wly/nwly at 8-18 kts with
gusts to 30 kts thru 21/03Z. The highest wind speeds will be in the
vicinity of KSAD and KDUG. SFC wind diminishing aft 21/03Z and
generally less than 12 kts thru the remainder of the forecast
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend
and through next week, with readings topping out about 10 degrees
above normal by early next week. It will remain dry in most
locations, with just a few showers or sprinkles possible across
portions of Cochise county Sunday. After wind speeds diminish this
evening, winds will generally be light and terrain driven over the
weekend and into next week, with the usual afternoon gustiness due
to strong daytime heating.






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