Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232235

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 PM MST Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into the upcoming holiday
weekend and likely through the end of the month. Gusty winds will
return again this weekend as a couple of low pressure systems move
north of the area. High temperatures will warm above seasonal
normals later this week before cooling a few degrees this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Abundant sunshine across southeast Arizona with
afternoon temperatures at or slightly below normal. Clear tonight
with overnight lows right around normal, like they have been for
over a week now, which is rather nice.

Warmer next two days as upper ridge builds over eastern Arizona
and New Mexico while another upper level trof moves into the west
coast. A few low desert locals may hit 100 on Friday. Gusty winds
return to the area on Friday but more so on Saturday associated
with the upper level trof moving inland. Highs returning to near
normal this weekend.

Upper ridge building over the area next week with a bit more areal
coverage of the lower deserts being in triple digits, including
Tucson, to end the month.

Looking further south the models are showing an increase in
monsoonal moisture across southern portions of the Mexican states
of Durango and Sinaloa over the next week. Its that time of the


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/23Z.
Clear thru valid pd. Surface W-SW 10-20 kts with higher gusts
until 24/03z then diminishing under 10 kts. Wind increasing again
out of W-SW after 24/17z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Lighter winds through Friday, though still some
afternoon breezes around 15 mph each afternoon. Another low
pressure system will approach our area this weekend bringing
another round of breezy/windy conditions on Saturday, with
critical fire weather conditions possible across portions of the
area. Some breezes will continue Sunday and Monday, though not
quite as strong as Saturday. Generally seasonable temperatures
through the weekend with a more significant warming trend next
week with no precipitation expected.





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