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890
FXUS65 KTWC 070840
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
140 AM MST Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A typical May weather regime for southeast Arizona.
Expect dry weather with breezy to locally windy conditions,
especially east of Tucson today and Wednesday. Expect less wind
later in the week into the weekend with typical afternoon gustiness.
High temperatures near normal for much of this week, then several
degrees above normal this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION...
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Clear skies this morning and starting off chilly after
the below normal temperatures yesterday. The cool down was short
lived as highs rebound today to seasonable levels. Our weather
pattern is dominated by dry westerly flow aloft as the main storm
track remains to our north. The gradient will remain tight enough in
this pattern to result in breezy to locally windy afternoon winds
both today and Wednesday. The strongest winds will be east of Tucson
including along the NM border where sustained winds today of 15 to
25 mph are expected with higher gusts. There will be a slight uptick
in winds Wednesday compared to today. We`ve been keeping a close eye
on the trends with these winds as it relates to fire weather
concerns. At this time, the duration, strength and geographical
extent of the winds are just below critical levels east of Tucson,
thus no fire weather headlines at this time.

Otherwise, still some breezes Thursday, then less wind into the
weekend as dry weather continues. Ensembles are showing a broad weak
upper low to our north Friday into the weekend but no real
discernible sensible weather impacts for us as dry westerly flow
continues and temperatures nudge up to a few degrees above seasonal
normals.
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.AVIATION...
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Valid through 08/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind less
than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 07/18Z. Aft 07/18Z, SFC
wind SWLY thru NWLY at 12-20 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts, with the
strongest wind to the east of KTUS. SFC winds diminish to less than
12 kts aft 08/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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High temperatures will near be normal through
Friday. Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal this weekend.
This week min RHs values will be in the single digits to lower teens
in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the
mountains.

Breezy afternoon/early evening winds will persist through Wednesday,
especially to the east of Tucson. Winds diminish Thursday into the
weekend, although typical May afternoon gustiness can be expected.
Wind speeds today and Wednesday will be near critical levels for a
couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon hours across
portions of Cochise and Graham counties. At this time, the duration
and geographical area/extent of critical wind speeds do not warrant
RFW headlines.
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&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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