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773
FXUS65 KTWC 022134
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 PM MST Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Sunny, warm, and dry to end the week with breezy
afternoons on most days. A dry weather system will bring stronger
breezes on Sunday.
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.DISCUSSION...
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Abundant sunshine this afternoon with a few mountain
cumulus clouds, especially over the White mountains. Afternoon
temperatures were relatively similar to yesterday. Water vapor
imagery this afternoon showed a weak/dry upper low off srn CA cst.

Friday and Saturday will be similar to today temperature-wise with
a slight uptick on the winds Saturday as next Pacific system will
be along the west coast.

This Pacific system will move inland on Sunday bringing a tighter
pressure gradient with resultant stronger southwest winds. At this
time looking at 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40-45 mph range
which may develop patchy areas of blowing dust. Might need a wind
headline for parts of the area on Sunday. Increased fire weather
concerns Sunday is addressed in the fire weather section below.

After Sunday, high temperatures will drop 3 to 5 degrees on
Monday and then return to the same tune as before, the upper 80s
to lower 90s with the typical afternoon breezes for the most of
the new week.
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.AVIATION...
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Valid through 04/00Z.
SKC through the majority of the forecast period with thin cirrus
above 20 kft MSL moving in after 03/21Z from southwest to northeast.
SFC winds this afternoon WSWLY at 10 to 15 kts with occasional gusts
to 20 kts in the late afternoon. After 03/05Z, winds become light
and variable through 03/16Z. Wind speeds WSW up to 15 kts after
03/17z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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High temperatures will remain above normal through
the remainder of the week. 20-ft winds will generally remain less
than 15 mph through Saturday. Min RHs in the valleys continue to be
in the single digits to the low teens for the lower valleys with
values in the teens to lower twenties for the mountains. A dry
weather system will be passing on Sunday to bring dry and windy
conditions in the afternoon. The combination of dry, windy, and warm
conditions will put areas from Sells eastward near critical to
critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. Next week, winds
will return to the typical afternoon breeziness of 10 to 15 mph.
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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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