000
FXUS65 KTWC 130919
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
219 AM MST Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with
temperatures several degrees above average through the weekend
before cooling early next week. A dry weather system passing
through the region will result in gusty south to southwest winds
into Monday. After a brief cool down, high pressure will push
temperatures back to well above average later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong low near the California coast will push
slowly across the Great Basin to our north over the next 72 hours.
Breezy to windy gradient winds for our area, with strongest winds
likely east of Tucson on Monday afternoon. Some flavor of
headlines possible as winds may push into advisory levels.

Any significant moisture / dynamics couplet will be well north of
our area. We will see some cooling in addition to the wind, with
temperatures dropping to well below climo Monday.

Strong high pressure building near the west coast will bring a
rapid warming trend beginning Tuesday, with temperatures back to
well above climo by Wednesday. We`ll easily push past 90 on
Thursday and Friday, with Tucson`s first 95s of the year in the
offing. A few days early compared to 30 year normals.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z.
SKC across a majority of SE Arizona, with SCT-BKN around 20-25k
ft AGL across far SE AZ near the International Border. SFC winds
less than 10 kts this morning, then after 13/17Z SLY/SWLY 10-20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal temperatures this weekend. Minimum relative humidity 8
to 16 percent in valleys through Sunday. Gusty winds into
early next week as a couple of dry system move through the region to
the north. Some areas could see brief critical to near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon and then again on Monday east of
Tucson, but fire danger and ERCs are still low for this time of
year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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