-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
365
FXUS63 KUNR 141111
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
511 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled this week with periodic chances for showers and
 thunderstorms, best chances today, esp along and south of I90.

-A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and evening in
 south central SD.

-Seasonal temps most of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Unsettled NW flow can be expected through the period. Each
shortwave crossing the region will have the ability to support
isold-sct shra/ts as a frontal boundary wavers over the region.
However, the best overlap of moisture and forcing will be with
today`s system. Overall, moisture will continue to be limited as
the GOMEX remains closed to the region, leaving the main moisture
source as leftover PAC moisture. Any appreciable rain will be
localized with most places seeing a few hundredths or less given
lack of deep moisture and convective nature of precip. Compact
shortwave will advect east today, supporting a good chance of
showers and storms across the southern half of the FA. Best
lift/diurnal forcing from heating will occur from the BH through
scentral SD where the highest coverage of showers is expected.
With CAPE approaching 1000 J/KG across scentral SD under steep ll
lapse rates (ahead of the sfc trough), expect a few storms will
have the potential to produce strong wind gusts, possibly over 50
knots. Otherwise, most storms will remain tame. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible with some of the heavier cells as
storms will be slow moving. Another weaker backside impulse may
bring some additional showers to the SW half tonight, otherwise,
things will begin to dry out some Wed, with only slight chances of
showers during the day. Things trend drier later in the week,
with continued low chances for showers each day. Expect most areas
will remain dry toward the end of the week, with more isolated
convection. Overall, temps will be seasonal with highs generally
in the 60s/70s, with warmer temps returning Thur and Fri. Models
are still indicating a cool down this weekend, but consensus on
the degree of cooling and duration is lacking.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 509 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Isolated showers with a few embedded thunderstorms have formed
across NE WY and western SD this morning. Further development is
expected after 16-18z today, with showers and storms continuing
throughout the day. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in and near
any stronger cores. IFR ceilings (even transient LIFR) are
expected at KGCC and NE WY overnight tonight, beginning after
03-06z and continue into Wednesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE