000
FXUS63 KUNR 172256
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
456 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/snow diminishing tonight.

- Unsettled, windy, and colder weather expected for the rest of the
  week and into the early part of the weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Water vapor shows broad upper trof over the northwestern CONUS
with main upper low over SASK. At the surface, breezy northwest
winds in wake of cold front that has now moved southeast into NEB.
Light rain/snow continues to spread south/east across the area
with strong jet streak overhead.

Rain/snow will end from northwest to southeast this evening, with
dry conditions expected overnight. Any snow accumulation should
remain limited to northeast WY and higher elevations of the Black
Hills. Winds will likely remain breezy overnight with lows mostly
in the 20s.

Windy conditions will re-develop Thursday morning with
aforementioned upper low moving only slightly eastward. Some
advisory level winds will become likely across far northwest SD
and will let the night shift fine tune if/where advisories are
needed. Mostly dry conditions expected with highs in the 40s to
near 50.

More wind is likely on Friday (but probably not as strong as
Thursday) as upper low shifts north of the Great Lakes and trof
axis moves across the Northern Plains. Highs will only reach the
upper 30s and 40s with coldest core of air aloft moving through. A
few rain/snow showers possible in our southern zones Friday into
Saturday, with Saturday only a few degrees warmer (but less wind).

Shortwave ridge moves through on Sunday for dry conditions and
temps back into the 60s for many locations.

Zonal flow to slight ridging expected early to mid next week,
bringing mild conditions and potential for near daily showers and
possibly storms as disturbances move through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 453 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Rain/snow showers over northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South
Dakota will shift out of the area this evening. MVFR/local IFR
conditions with the precipitation, with the lowest conditions
around the Black Hills. VFR ceilings are expected overnight into
Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...07