000
FXUS65 KVEF 180804
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
104 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will bring considerable high
clouds over our region Thursday. As the system moves inland Friday
there will be a slight chance for showers over the mountains of
western Inyo County. Otherwise, dry conditions and temperatures
climbing well above normal will continue through the weekend and
early next week under a ridge of high pressure. A trough will move
inland Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in gusty southwest winds and
temperatures gradually pulling back to near normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.

Only change this morning was to bump up POPs over the southern
Sierra/White/Inyo mountains of western Inyo County Friday afternoon
and evening. Timing coincides with passage of weak shortwave trough
through southern California. HREF, along with deterministic NAM/GFS
and ECMWF all paint some light QPF over the higher terrain.

Otherwise, much of the moisture streaming inland associated with the
shortwave trough will be at or above 500 mb. The exception is Friday
over Inyo County with cloud based between 10-15 kft MSL associated
with the showers. Little change in high temperatures today and
Friday as they will continue to run above normal. For Las Vegas, NBM
showing only a 2 degree difference between the 25th and 75th
percentile. Most persistent breezes will occur across the western
Mojave Desert throughout the period, while daytime breezes elsewhere
will subside in the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

Ridge will build across the western US through the weekend with
temperatures climbing well above normal. Probabilities remain high
for 90 degree or greater temperatures in the Las Vegas Valley
through the weekend, with lower elevations along the Colorado River
and Death Valley approaching or exceeding 100.  The flow pattern
will begin to change on Monday with increasing troughing beginning
to form off the west coast and our flow aloft shifting to more
southwesterly. This will keep temperatures warm Monday but we may
notice increasingly breezy conditions in the afternoon with a
stronger flow aloft beginning to mix down to the surface. Tuesday
onward, troughing will begin to approach with heights decreasing.
This will induce a gradual cooldown and continued gusty conditions
at times.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Generally light and variable winds
through sunrise, favoring a northeasterly direction after 15z.
Probability of sustained winds exceeding 10 knots before 22z is
around 35%, with best chances between 16z - 19z. After 22z, we`ll be
watching for the arrival of southwest winds with gusts up to 20
knots. Most likely arrival time appears to be between 22z and 00z.
It`s possible (20% chance) that there`ll be a brief period (1 hour
or less) of southeast winds approaching 10 knots preceding the
southwest winds. After sunset, southwest winds will weaken but
persist through most of the night before becoming light and
variable. SCT-BKN clouds aoa 15kft through most of the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light northeast winds develop in the Las Vegas Valley
after sunrise, persisting into the afternoon hours until breezy
southwest winds arrive between 21z and 00z. Light winds at KBIH
until west-northwest breezes arrive in the late afternoon, turning
northerly after sunset. Persistent west breezes at KDAG, increasing
after 00z with gusts of 20-25 knots. Light and variable winds in the
Colorado River Valley, becoming southerly this afternoon with gusts
up to 20 knots. VFR conditions prevail across the area as SCT-BKN
clouds aoa 15kft persist through most of the TAF period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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