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855
FXUS61 KAKQ 071356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
956 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are
expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push
through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level
trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday,
with dry conditions expected Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday...

Late morning WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well off
the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area.
Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central
high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower
OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in
place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing
through the area. Earlier fog over the NW has generally
dissipated, leaving a broken or overcast low cloud deck over
these areas. Expect this to gradually thin out over the next few
hrs with increasing sfc heating. Temps have risen into the
upper 60s-low 70s (except in the mid 60s where that low cloud
deck remains).

For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary
threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a
little steeper today compared to the past few days with the
expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning
into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as
upper level flow becomes NW and the upper ridge W of the
Appalachians amplifies. Shear will avg ~30kt. Given the overall
weaker forcing, expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but
still in the chc range this aftn (mainly 30-40%), with a bit
lower coverage (20%) over the SW zones. Latest HREF places the
highest coverage of storms in the I-64 corridor, along with a
secondary area over the MD Eastern Shore. Thinking is that sea
breezes and/or remnant boundaries may serve as the primary focus
for shower/storm activity this aftn. The best instability will
over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn, and this is
where there is the best chance of a localized damaging wind
gust. Highs will range from the low- mid 80s across most of the
region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later
aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the
winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this
evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent
signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect
the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...

The pattern remains active Wed-Thu, with a strong upper low
shifting E towards the Great Lakes Wed, then slowly dropping SE
Thu/Thu night. Both Wed and Thu will be warm and somewhat humid
for the time of year (dew pts in the mid/upper 60s during peak
heating). SPC has placed the CWA in a a Marginal risk for
Wed and a Slight risk for Thu. With that said, Wed will still
feature ample instability (ML CAPE to 1000-2000 J/Kg), and
decent shear (0-6km bulk shear and increasing shear ~40kt). The
limiting factor will be a WSW low level flow that may lead to a
limited storm coverage. Hot Wed with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Again the main threat will be wind and hail in any
storms that develop, primarily late in the aftn into the
evening (actually may see the higher coverage during the
evening). For Thu, we will continue to see decent shear, and
with decreasing heights aloft as the upper trough moves in from
the NW, a higher storm coverage. Some of the CAMs are suggesting
some morning shower/tstm activity and this could mess with the
aftn instability to some extent. Still, the overall pattern is
favorable enough to support the Slight risk as it appears now.
Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the low 80sW to the
upper 80s SE. Showers/storms diminish overnight with drier air
moving in from W to E. Slightly cooler with lows in the upper
50s W to low-mid 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...

Fri starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to
redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated
shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be
limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft could set
off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Highs
on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The
weekend weather pattern remains a bit uncertain as the models
show yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and
passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The
airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/
20-30% PoPs (highest N) for Sat night through early Sun aftn. It
looks dry from late Sunday through Monday with seasonable
temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

Showers taper off over the ern shore over the next few hrs,
though an isolated shower still could affect VA zones over the
next few hrs as well. Conditions vary from LIFR in the piedmont
(both CIGs and VSBYs) to mostly MVFR across the SE. Expect to
see flight restrictions improve to VFR by later morning/early
aftn and should remain that way through the aftn outside of
scattered aftn/early evening tstms. Have included VCTS in the
TAFs from 17/18Z through ~22/23Z. Brief heavy rain (with IFR
VSBYs) and gusty winds can be expected in any shower/tstm this
aftn. There continues to be a strong signal that a marine layer
pushes inland over the Eastern Shore this evening through Wed
morning with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible at SBY. Winds remain
generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10
kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become SW 5-10 kt late today, but
may shift to the SE near the coast between 18-21Z. Light winds
tonight.


Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Wed
through Thu, with chances for storms mainly during the aftn/evening.
The highest coverage is expected to be Thursday as a slow moving
cold front moves through the area. Mainly VFR Fri, but there
will be a chc for showers redeveloping Fri aftn into fri
evening. Mainly dry Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Quiet conditions early this morning across the local waters. Surface
analysis shows high pressure off the SE CONUS with strong low
pressure noted over the northern Plains. Winds are generally SW 5-10
kt with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore.

A weak front is located north of the local waters and it may sag
southward into the northern Ches Bay this afternoon before lifting
back northward this evening. High pressure remains anchored well
offshore through mid week, resulting in sub-SCA S or SW flow. A
series of upper waves will traverse north of the area in the speedy
westerly flow aloft through Thursday. These disturbances will bring
the chance for showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring the
afternoon into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced
winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low
late Friday into the first half of the weekend may lead to a
stronger frontal passage and the potential for SCA conditions but
confidence in strength and timing of the relevant features are low.
Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Continued ebb tides at the mouth of the bay have resulted in
decreasing tidal anomalies across the area (generally less than 1
foot in the mid and upper bay and around 1 foot for the southern
bay/lower James gauges). Some nuisance to localized low-end minor
flooding (Bishops Head) will be possible with the higher diurnal
astronomical tides early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests
borderline minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding is possible
across bay-side portions of the MD Eastern Shore early Thursday
morning as SW flow combines with increasing astronomical tides
as we approach the new moon phase.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...