Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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721 FXUS61 KBGM 210226 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 926 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A light northwest flow of air will keep clouds, and perhaps a few sprinkles or flurries in the area overnight. High pressure will build in briefly on Thursday bringing breaks in the clouds and dry weather. A cold front will rush through on Thursday night and Friday bringing showers, followed by a return to colder air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 930PM Update... With this latest update, the spatial extent of sprinkles/light rain showers has been pulled back, with light precipitation mainly downwind of the Finger Lakes at this time. Temperatures have been able to stay a couple degrees warmer than expected, so limiting the potential for any freezing drizzle overnight to mainly the higher elevations of central NY. Previous discussion continues below. Hi-res models continue to struggle to capture the sprinkles/light rain showers across our area tonight. Sprinkles and rain showers continue overnight mainly downwind of Ontario and the Finger Lakes with NW flow, and across the higher elevations of central NY. Soundings are still staying very dry through the snow growth region overnight, so any precipitation will likely stay as mainly a drizzle with some flurries possibly mixing in. However, as temperatures drop back into the low/mid 30s and even upper 20s across the higher elevations, some very light freezing drizzle will be possible. Little to no ice accumulations are expected, so we will hold off still on any advisory. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak warm front waves at the area late Thursday but the upper support for precip is well back to the west. There is the off chance of some light rain late in the day over the extreme northern and western zones. Thursday night the cold front crashes through the area late bringing showers, mainly in the colder air behind the front. cold air is seasonable, with the 850 mb temps bottoming out around -9C midday Friday. This should result in some continued light lake effect showers, mixing with snow over the higher elevations, especially later in the day. Surface temps above freezing, but slowly dropping during the day will keep any snow from accumulating. Surface pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday as warm advection begins aloft. This will allow for a dry and warmer day Saturday with a light west flow. Increasing high clouds are likely late in the day from a low approaching from the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 300PM Update... Model trends remain largely unchanged with regard to the two systems for the long term - the first on Sunday and the other heading into the midweek period. Therefore, no changes have been made to the long term period. Previous discussion continues below... Medium range models continue to diverge in handling a high amplitude trof, and associated low pressure development, moving into the eastern third of the Nation Saturday night and Sunday. Ensemble spaghetti plots show a great deal of variance, but tonight`s 00Z operational ECMWF and GFS models were agreeing on a more northerly development of an East Coast low and a big jump in precipitation chances for our area. Canadian NHemi model is still a miss as is the mean of the GEFS surface pressure and moisture fields. Confidence remains low, but it`s hard to ignore the latest model trends. My experience tells me to lean with westward/northward trending and also tells me to not jump into the deep end just yet. NBM blended guidance still appears to dry in this situation, so have nudged up PoPs across the region on Saturday night and Sunday. Beyond these early periods...quasi-zonal flow brings weak disturbances and glancing effects of lake effect snow/rain showers across our northern zones through Tuesday and generally fair elsewhere. Next...ensemble clusters, including the operational EC/GFS and Canadian models, point us toward Wednesday and Thanksgiving day for our next potentially strong system to deal with. Timing, strength and position of this system is all over the place with a general tendency for a track again through the western Great lakes. That would suggest temperatures leaning on the warmer side, or at worst marginal, for rain or snow showers depending on time of day and change of airmass. To sum it all up...rather unsettled for most days next week, but not unusually cold. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Most of our terminals remain under MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight with a broken cloud deck at around 1200 to 2500 ft. The exceptions will be ITH and BGM, where ceilings are coming in at around 700 to 800ft tonight, dropping to alternate mins at times with flurries and drizzle. Slight reductions in visibility are also expected where this light precipitation can occur. Ceilings across all terminals are expected to slowly improve after sunrise, with mainly VFR by the afternoon as flow shifts to the south/southwest. Winds mainly from the northwest at around 3 to 5 kts overnight will turn light and variable after sunrise Thursday, then shift to the south/southwest at around 3 to 5 kts Thursday afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...Restrictions likely in lower clouds and rain showers as low pressure system passes. Friday night...Snow showers/flurries could bring restrictions, mainly the NY terminals. KAVP perhaps an MVFR ceiling. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Saturday night through Sunday...System with snow-rain mix may pass through the region with associated restrictions. Monday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/HLC SHORT TERM...DGM/JAB LONG TERM...HLC/JAB AVIATION...HLC

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