738
FXUS64 KMEG 210236
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
936 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

No big changes were made to the forecast with the evening update.
Skies are clear with calm conditions areawide as a midlevel ridge
of high pressure settles into the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures
should hover comfortably around 70 degrees overnight. Tomorrow
looks like our last day of dry and calm weather for several days
as a more active pattern starts up midweek.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Dry and very warm weather will continue across the Mid-South
through Tuesday night as high pressure remains over the region.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Showers
and thunderstorms will move across the region on Wednesday and
Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms could become severe on Wednesday with damaging
winds and large hail as the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible both days with these thunderstorms, mainly
over northern sections of the Mid-South. Unsettled weather is
expected for the weekend with scattered thunderstorms possible
from Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. High pressure covers a large
portion of the U.S. east of the Mississippi River.

With high pressure remaining to our east, dry weather will remain
for much of the Mid-South for tonight through Tuesday night.
Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows Tuesday
morning in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Highs on Tuesday will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

A cold front will move into northern Arkansas and southeast
Missouri Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will form
ahead of the front and start moving into northwest portions of the
Mid-South by late Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread across much of the region on Wednesday. Some of the
thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds and large
hail as the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
on Wednesday mainly over the northern half of the region. With
the increase in clouds and thunderstorms in the area, temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler on Wednesday.

The cold frontal will stall out across west Tennessee and northern
Arkansas on Thursday and Friday with more thunderstorms expected
to move across the region. The threat of severe weather on
Thursday should be confined to portions of central and western
Arkansas but locally heavy rainfall will be possible again over
northern sections of the Mid-South.

The cold front is expected to fall apart by Saturday, but another
cold front will remain north of the region over the weekend. This
will result in additional thunderstorms moving through the region
for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are expected to remain
above normal for much of the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will persist over the next 30 hours. A deepening
surface low will move across the Middle Mississippi Valley early
tomorrow and tighten the pressure gradient across the region. Wind
gusts will likely exceed 20 knots at all sites.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...AC3