Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 201016 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 416 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight) Issued at 416 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Dry weather is expected over most of southern CO through tonight. The exception will be across the northern portions of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges today where residual moisture in northwesterly orographic flow combined with an upper jet translating eastward just north of the area will produce some isolated snow showers at times. Any accumulation will be spotty and light with amounts under an inch. Temperatures will warm over yesterday`s readings... approaching 60 on the plains...around lower 50s for the valleys and mix of 20s and 30s and 40s for the mountains. Only concern for this afternoon will be winds, particularly across the mountains and valleys north of highway 50 and northern portions of the San Luis Valley. These areas could see some marginal critical fire weather conditions with gusts to around 25-30 mph for the lower elevations of fire zone 222 (Fremont county)where fuels are considered critical. It appears, relative humidity values could be the limiting factor with readings just touching 15 percent for an hour or two this afternoon. Given the marginal and spotty nature to the event, no fire weather highlights will be issued for the time being. Another area where spotty critical fire weather conditions could be met would be far northeast sections of the southeast plains...though looks like winds will come up just shy. As the upper jet translates eastward, another northerly surge will spread down the plains and shift winds to the east by this evening as the surface high drops through the plains. Doesn`t appear to be much cooling behind this front. Tonight will be dry with light winds across the area. Central mountains will continue to see some gusty west to northwest winds across the higher peaks tonight...though these should not be as strong as today`s given upper ridging aloft. -KT .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 416 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Wednesday and Thursday...Northwest flow across the region will relax by Wed night as the upper ridge slides east across Colorado. There will likely be a few snow showers over the central mts Wed, then a break Wed night before southwest flow aloft strengthens and draws more moisture up along the Continental Divide. Up to two inches of new snow is expected for the higher elevations of the Divide through Thu, while the rest of the forecast area will be going through a warming trend. Expect highs in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains on Wed, then 60s for the high valleys and 70s for the plains on Thu. Friday and Saturday...The upper ridge axis moves east of Colorado by early Fri morning, allowing deep southwest flow to strengthen and sweep across the state. This will bring a healthy plume of moisture into the Continental Divide for the potential of moderate snow accumulations for the higher terrain on Fri. These winds will also promote very warm and dry conditions across the eastern plains Fri aftn, and combined with the gusty downslope winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely. If current model trends persist, then fire weather highlights will likely be hoisted tomorrow for the Fri aftn time frame. The first upper shortwave passes to the north and winds will decrease by Sat morning, allowing for slightly cooler temps and only some lingering light snow showers for the central mts. As for maximum temps, look for mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to near 90F for the plains on Fri. For Sat expect highs in the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 60s to upper 70s for the plains. Sunday and Monday...Very low confidence in what will happen over Sun and Mon, as the long range models do not agree. Therefore, stayed with the extended procedure output with highs in the 50s for the high valleys and 50s to mid 60s for the plains both days, but did cut back pops to just isolated. Moore
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 416 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018 VFR conditions expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours with some passing high cloudiness at times. Northwest winds across the plains during the early part of the day will transition to east to southeasterly in the afternoon as a front drops through the plains. Not much cooling behind this front though with mainly a wind shift and speeds in the 10-15 kt range in the afternoon. Winds will decrease in the evening with speeds under 10 kts overnight. KALS will also see a period of northwest winds this afternoon with speeds around 10-15 kts before winds diminish this evening. -KT
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&& .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...KT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.